S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break extended down Thursday to 1.2355, and a second consecutive lower close confirms the 1.2445 sell signal, and its potential down to 1.2245, or at least to produce one more lower close.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jun, which trades at a 3.50 premium to Apr]… Not exploiting Wednesday’s closing test of 1329.00 support doesn’t prevent rallying out of the weekend, and eventually filling the gap outstanding from Monday’s 1360.00 close. But it does all but require exiting the weekend in rally mode.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s flat and narrow ranging didn’t reject Wednesday’s break under 16.40. But neither did it confirm the break. The sell signal remains valid so long as it a reaction up doesn’t recover 16.50.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Interim weakness easily held its pullback limit for fresh highs Thursday testing 146-23. The trend remains up so long as 146-02 now holds as support. But there is no requirement for another higher close.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A brief deeper dip to 63.60 still recovered back up to the 64.64 pullback limit Thursday, and then extended higher to probe 65.00, still targeting 66.88.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight into Thursday’s gap up wasn’t rejected intraday. Its probe above 2.70 resistance touched 2.76. Having probed above the optimal bounce limit. Aggressively resuming the decline is the most credible path down.
Mid-day Update… And special announcements.
REMINDER: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS DURING TODAY’S FINAL HOUR…
ALSO: Market Wrap will be held early at 2:22 ET.
Trending up to this morning’s 2625.25 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment then requires the bias-up signal to define the window’s upper-end. But its resistance was hardly recognized as the rally extended through it to 2642.00.
Being no-bias trending, the retracement down to 2625.25 has become unfinished business below. Often the 2617.00 10:15 print will be tested, too, but it is not a requirement. Reacting down to 2627.00 fulfilled neither of these lower objectives. Meanwhile, there’s a requirement above, to retest overbought RSIs at the 2642.00 high.
Given the impending three days of illiquidity, Friday Factors still apply despite this being Thursday. And they can cut either way — drifting higher through the afternoon without counter-trend sponsorship to stop it, or trading aimlessly flat-to-lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s Good Friday, so markets are closed through the weekend. Globex re-opens Sunday night, along with the chaRTroom. Happy Easter and Happy Passover!
Markets are closed.
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2639.25 | 2639.75 |
| …would target | 2649.50 | 2650.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2624.00 | 2624.50 |
| …would target | 2616.50 | 2617.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Better late than never?
Late start to fresh highs may lack sponsorship.
Rallying this morning was likely to begin early. But rallying early wasn’t any likelier to be maintained. The overnight rally put that to the test.
Immediately spiking up 7 points to probe overnight highs up to 2624.00 didn’t extend higher. It was retraced and reversed down to 2609.50.
That was still positive territory. And the 2625.25 bias-up signal wasn’t touched, so an offsetting test of its bias-down signal wasn’t put into play. The open was volatile enough not to form a “dry cleaners morning” setup.
Now the morning is rallying late.
The 2634.50 bias-up target is being probed by nearly 7 points. It wasn’t in-play, so anything above 2625.25 is “no bias trending” that requires being retraced. Its retracement could extend down to the 2617.00 10:15 print. Overbought RSIs at 2641.25 will either delay that, or else require a recovery.
Finally rewarding yesterday’s failed rubber band stretches is normal. Surging to compensate for the delay is normal. The delayed timing is only borderline normal, but that can be corrected by retracing its no-bias trending. Regardless, not trending down into a seasonally bullish weekend is normal, regardless of rallying.