S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 8, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar is loaded with high-profile items. At least the pre-open ECB policy statement and especially the subsequent Draghi presser are reliably influential to price action. There may be extra sensitivity to any report ahead of Friday’s payrolls.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ECB policy statement / Draghi Q&A
7:45 AM / 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2819.50 | 2718.75 |
| …would target | 2726.75 | 2726.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2708.50 | 2708.00 |
| …would target | 2699.75 | 2699.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not painful enough.
Expending energy just to avoid a deeper dip.
The more things change… Last night’s gap down to 2700.00 was being attacked by a 9-point pre-open dip from overnight highs. Last night’s reaction to its 2700.00 open extended down 18-19 points.
This morning’s reaction to its 2700.00 open has extended up 18-19 points.
The 2717.00 bias-down signal triggered cleanly at 10:15. It was still being overlapped at 10:30 to avoid being invalidated. This is a bias-down environment, whose target has been met. The 2707.00 target need not be retested, and it need not hold if retested. But the window’s upper-end should ultimately be defined by 2717.00, or require its retracement — if not also to its 2710.25 10:15 print.
Meanwhile, I discussed two likelihoods during this morning’s Market Tour: That the post-open crowd wanted to express its own concerns over the same news that had triggered last night’s gap down. And that this was likely from testing 2713.25, if not 2718.75.
The session’s first 45 minutes was a 7-point choppy range around 2713.25. Now a late surge is probing 3 points above 2718.75. It’s already required to retrace back down to 2717.00, if not also to 2710.25. Back under 2715.25 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, maintaining the recovery above 2718.75 would target a probe above yesterday afternoon’s 2731.00 high.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Resolving the bearish template.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s bearish template developed fully, with one exception — the bearish resolution. Having held a test Monday of the corrective bounce’s 2725.25-2727.75 objective, a failed intraday probe above it (i.e. distribution) was needed to kick-start the reversal. The probe happened up to 2734.50 before the open, and the reversal was underway down to 2710.25 during the bias environment exit. But a knee-jerk reaction to a tariffs headline triggered a recovery that ranged sideways around 2725.25-2727.75 through the close. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at the morning’s 2704.75 bias-down signal.
Overnight action’s new info…
Who knew. Apparently, the White House Chief Economic Advisor is critical to market stability. At least, that’s implied by Tuesday night’s 24-27 point gap down to 2700.00 in reaction to Gary Cohn’s resignation. And that eventually extended down to 2681.25. The test of “lower prior highs” at 2683.00 from last Friday afternoon reacted up until touching 2704.75, Tuesday morning’s unfinished business that is now neutralized. A shallower dip to 2685.00 was recovered almost entirely to 2704.75 through Europe’s opens. A 10-point range that formed since then just blipped-up to the 2707.00 bias-down target’s resistance, and reacted back down into the range.
If, then…
Knee-jerk reactions to news tend to be retraced to their origin, so filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close shouldn’t be surprising. But that’s not a timing mechanism, a requirement or even an influence, so it’s not an impediment to extending down. Meanwhile, there wasn’t any bullish reason last week to revisit 2701.00 or 2682.00, so the alternative to not holding their tests today could be to trend sharply lower. The immediate question isn’t about resolution, but the path there. The intraday crowd hasn’t yet had the opportunity to react to last night’s news. Another corrective bounce into or through the open up to 2713.25 or 2718.75 should still be shallow enough to attract sellers, but any higher could inhibit them to think the storm has passed. Otherwise, not holding the 2695.00 area through the open would mean strong hands aren’t waiting for more strength to sell into.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2718.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2717.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2713.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2704.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2707.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2731.50 | 2731.00 |
| …would target | 2736.75 | 2736.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2717.25 | 2717.00 |
| …would target | 2707.50 | 2707.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET IS MET | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.