S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s second consecutive close under Tuesday’s breakout — which had returned already to prior lows for no bullish reason — drifted lower overnight ahead of Fed chair Powell’s second day of congressional testimony Thursday. Gapping down was recovered to at least fluctuate choppily, not yet fulfilling the confirmed breakout’s required eventual third lower close.
Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Probing lower overnight ahead of Powell’s testimony gapped down Thursday to and through the 1315.00 prior low whose overnight test had previously satisfied selling pressure. Its current break now targets 1291.50, so long as bounces hold 1312.50.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows into Thursday’s open fulfilled the minimum objective for this leg, filling the gap back down to the low’s 16.25 close. Probing it by nearly a dime reacted up, filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 16.40 close. The gap held, both neutralizing its attraction and maintaining the drop’s momentum.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying overnight to fresh recovery highs gapped up Thursday’s to test 144-04. Dipping back under the 143-12 bounce limit by only 6 ticks was recovered entirely to retest the gap up. Closing under 143-12 would signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 143-24.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reversing down hasn’t hesitated since fulfilling confirmed buy signal’s minimum upside objective. Failing its pullback limit, then triggering its sell signal, has extended down Thursday, to 60.20 support. The decline remains intact so long as bounces now hold 61.35 as resistance.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from either a position of strength or of weakness. Thursday’s muted reaction bounced almost a nickel to test recent highs. But a bottoming pattern does still need a fresh low and its recovery for a rally attempt to be credible.
Mid-day Update… Passing that point.
Probing the same pullback limit that had held already last week.
The pullback into last week’s lows had to hold 2701.50 through any relevant timing window to remain a pullback. Plunging into its test last Wednesday afternoon had initially extended overnight to 2682.00. Recovering the excess through Thursday’s open had formed the Isolation reversal setup.
That reversal setup was productive. Extending it probed the pullback’s origin for new recovery highs. There’s no bullish reason to revisit that upleg’s origin — i.e. 2701.50.
2701.50 was probed during the noon hour, and broken sharply exiting the noon down to 2680.25. At least 1-minute RSI is diverging positively at the low, which just reacted up to 2692.50. Exiting the bias environment back above 2701.50 would help to suggest the interim break was sponsored only by weak-handed sponsors. Otherwise, the next downleg is likely already underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 2, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday morning’s only econ report is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. More so lately with their being greater focus on inflationary pressures, and this being an opportunity to gauge the willingness to absorb them.
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2726.75 | 2726.50 |
| …would target | 2733.25 | 2733.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2712.00 | 2711.75 |
| …would target | 2697.25 | 2697.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Ranging again.
Fresh lows get squeezed as their catalyst evaporates.
Yesterday afternoon’s pessimism was proved to have overly-discounted this morning’s Fed chair testimony. Yesterday afternoon’s pessimism, the overnight pessimism, and then 
the post-open pessimism.
That last bit of pessimism was a pre-open recovery that let the open touch a 2720.00 buy signal instead of triggering it. Its reaction down attacked the overnight low and this morning’s 2698.25 bias-down target. The 2707.50 bias-down signal avoided triggering thanks to a grace period. The offsetting test of its 2726.00 bias-up signal was quickly fulfilled, probing it by 5 points.
That’s also a test of what had been yesterday’s next lower objective at 2729.00. Its resistance has reacted down to within 3 ticks of 2707.50. Nothing prevents the reaction from extending down to fresh lows. Nothing except the 2707.50 bias-down signal whose test should now define the window’s lower-end. Until the window starts lapsing.
Back above 2718.25 would start to signal the reaction down may have been absorbed. Meanwhile, the next lower objective is fresh lows at 2693.50, and potentially resuming the decline. THE decline.