S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
More USD crashing and ECB’s policy statement took currencies to higher, as the Euro probed its 1.2465 resistance and trended higher Thursday to test 1.2575. It was consolidated, and afternoon comments triggered a USD surge that took the Euro back down to 1.2465. Closing back under 1.2435 would reverse the trend back down .
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher after Wednesday’s close came within $4 of testing the rally’s next higher objective at 1369.50. Weakness into Thursday’s open was recovered to attack the morning’s high. A pullback could test 1345.00 without yet reversing the trend down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s rally extended higher after the close to within 1-2 cents of the 17.72 target. Overnight action didn’t probe any higher, and Thursday’s open was greeted in a pullback to 17.45. Its reaction recovered to attack the opening highs. Closing under Thursday’s low would reverse the trend down.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another overnight probe of fresh lows was recovered into Thursday’s open for a morning bounce. The 149-03 bounce limit was attacked again. None of which changes the likelihood for continuing to probe lower, especially so long as the bounce limit holds.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs after Wednesday’s close extended higher overnight to satisfy the minimum 66.05 resistance on the way to the eventual 67.20 target. Gapping up to 66.60 was retraced to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s ~65.60 close. Probing higher intraday Thursday would confirm the uptrend remains in-play.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s strength didn’t exceed Tuesday night’s highs, or Wednesday’s intraday highs, having become likelier to produce a deeper corrective down before extending the rally.
Mid-day Update… Stuck in the mud.
Decline and recovery both getting nowhere. Slowly.
The ranges are different with each timing window. But the market is range bound.
The open’s collapse ultimately triggered no-bias by holding a test of the morning’s 2835.50 bias-down signal. The balance of the bias environment was contained between the 2835.50-2843.00 bias signals. Probing higher into the noon hour was only temporary, and didn’t extend. But its reaction down only touched the afternoon’s 2840.75 bias-down signal, and didn’t trigger.
Back under 2841.50 would be credible for starting to break lower. Especially if the bias environment lapsing is at least within view. Meanwhile, there’s still potential for bouncing back to the highs. This morning’s last dip and now this afternoon’s last dip each had potential to extend down — and didn’t. Probing back above 2848.00 again this late in the day could marginalize sellers.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s two simultaneous pre-open reports are high-profile. Only Durable Goods has a track record for influencing price action. Any obvious reaction to it would likely be duplicated by post-open reports — there aren’t any, but it could still be a guide for anticipating the resolution of any knee-jerk reactions.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2848.50 | 2848.75 |
| …would target | 2854.00 | 2854.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2840.50 | 2840.75 |
| …would target | 2832.25 | 2832.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
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1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The market stabs back.
Taking a stab at resuming the rally has failed.
The overnight rally had consolidated an attack on 2850.50. A pre-open knee-jerk reaction to news surged to 2853.75, and then drifted to greet the open at yesterday’s 2848.00 opening
print. Its attraction is neutralized. And there is no requirement to retest the pre-open high.
Since yesterday’s close I’ve been describing the distributive pattern forming. Early strength has become likely to be rejected early. This morning’s open offered an excellent — if not also extreme — example. The first half-hour plunged to 2833.75.
Bias is being influential, but also contradictory. Rejecting tests of both bias-up parameters puts into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. But the 2835.50 bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. And it held through 10:30 to trigger no-bias.
The 2843.00 bias-up signal should define the no-bias environment’s upper-end. It’s being tested now. Exceeding it this morning would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced. Holding it has room down to the 2835.50 bias-down signal until the no-bias environment lapses, or else probing any lower would also be no-bias trending. The most bearish scenario would start dipping again, and break lower into the afternoon.