S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s surge was retraced had originated from a weak base that was likely to fail eventually. It wasted no time as Thursday retraced the surge’s origin, and triggering a sell signal under 1.1465. The gap back up to Wednesday’s close need not be filled, but it could be attacked up to 1.1500.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending Wednesday’s post-close surge overnight gapped up sharply Thursday, but it was all retraced anyway back down to Tuesday’s close. The gap up above all prior intraday highs does create an attraction from below that would want to be filled before any durable reversal were credible.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday held up relatively well intraday for being under pressure throughout. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm a new rally leg underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s surge extended higher Thursday, its second consecutive higher close from a multi-session range now confirming a bigger rally leg underway.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower overnight ranging was recovered Thursday to retest Wednesday’s highs. All price requirements have been met, so only a second consecutive higher close can confirm the trend remains intact.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not being greeted from a position of strength. Not from a position of weakness, either, but that didn’t prevent dipping further under 2.84 to test 2.80. Back above 2.84 would once again signal a rally underway.
Mid-day Update… Betting on weak hands.
Strong hands aren’t buying here. Not, yet.
This morning’s bias environment ultimately extended through its 2842.00 bias-up target to 2856.50. The noon hour’s dip attacked 2846.00, then recovered to attack this afternoon’s 2854.50 bias-up signal. Which didn’t trigger, and was only touched at 1:30 to threaten invalidating the no-bias.
This is a no-bias environment, so its 2854.50 bias-up signal is likely to define the window’s upper-end. Extending above it would be “no-bias trending” and require being retraced. Which wouldn’t be surprising for a doomed rally to try, but it’s not necessary. The rally can wait until the bias environment begins lapsing before resuming.
And resuming the rally is likely, so long as 2848.75 now holds as support. Even then, the Isolation setup will’s reward retesting this week’s ~2860.00 high would still be likely tomorrow, which would be vulnerable to retracing the rally from this morning’s lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 22, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s first post-open econ report is reliable for triggering a price reaction. The two other post-open reports are neither high-profile nor reliable for influencing price action.
*PMI Composite FLASH
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2549.50 | 2554.50 |
| …would target | 2555.25 | 2560.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2840.00 | 2845.00 |
| …would target | 2832.50 | 2837.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Fourth time’s a charm?
Open’s surge rejects bias-down tests for bias-up trigger.
The pre-open Market Tour ended as an overnight bounce up to unchanged at 2827.00 began collapsing. 
It extended to 2815.00, and then blipped-down to 2813.75 in reaction to 8:30’s econ report. Firming from there greeted the open at 2820.00, where price immediately surged. And surged.
Suddenly the probe under this morning’s 2823.50 and 2816.00 bias-down parameters had become a threat to trigger the 2835.50 bias-up signal. Which did trigger, and just met its 2842.00 bias-up target. Persistently overbought 3-minute RSI remains persistently overbought.
Now might be an appropriate time to pause for a message from this week’s sponsor, the failed intraday rally. The pattern could be solid, and could be guaranteed to repeat again, multiple times. But not necessarily today. We’ll certainly monitor for a reversal setup, and keep the door open to retracing this morning’s surge, but a reversal could be delayed.
Back to regularly scheduled programming… Greeting the open back above yesterday’s lows and maintaining that recovery forms an Isolation setup. Avoiding yesterday’s lows today and tomorrow would target a retest of this week’s ~2860.00 high, which exiting the bias environment above its 2842.00 bias-up target would help. Rejecting the setup today would be very bearish, and once again there is no “unfinished business” above. Back under 2837.50 would suggest a reversal is underway.