S&P
Post-open Review… Making a stand.
Renewed bias-down trying not to extend.
The overnight drop to 2737.25 had bounced to greet the open at this morning’s 2745.00 bias-down target. 
The bounce’s measurements suggested that post-open follow-through would test 2746.75 before resuming the overnight decline. Its touch reacted down immediately back under 2745.00.
The minimum objective was to probe the overnight low. And it was, quickly, pierced by 3 ticks down to 2736.50. But that was all.
Immediately reacting up has extended to recover the 2739.75 renewed bias-down target. The 2745.00 bias-down target was still being tested at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Another point has been added to 2746.00.
Back under 2741.50 would signal the decline has resumed, if not signaled earlier. Currently, the only path higher must enter the noon hour back above 2750.00, and then maintain 2748.00 as support. Afternoon bias parameters will also be relevant.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Whoops.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Waiting until very near Tuesday’s open before finally breaking above Monday’s overnight ranging is usually an unsustainable setup. So its surge to 2753.50 was retraced back down to “lower prior highs” at 2748.00. But not any lower, and the bias environment eventually extended to probe its 2757.50 bias-up target by 1 point. Being late didn’t prevent probing higher later, either, as the afternoon bias environment touched 2760.00 during a very weakly signaled bias-up. The bias environment’s probe wasn’t maintained through its exit, and the last half-hour returned to the 2751.00 opening print.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late slide was never retraced or corrected. Fluctuating around it in a 3-point range broke lower into and out of Europe’s opens to test what is this morning’s 2745.00 bias-down target. Consolidating there has since broken sharply lower to 2737.00 on headlines that China is easing its US Treasury purchases. Presumably, this refers to Treasury debt obligations, and not to the US Treasury itself, which we have on good authority Russia already owns by proxy. Anyway, a bounce to 2744.00 is now reacting back down at least 3 points.
If, then…
I noted in yesterday’s Market Wrap that similar opening and closing levels at a new extreme often identify that extreme as being durable. Yesterday’s 2751.00 open was retraced into the close, which overnight action had ranged around before breaking lower. There wasn’t any further distributive action, but the reversal is that much more credible. So, lower lows are likely before any bottoming attempt would be credible for holding, let alone for recovering. Still being so young, the reaction down could be rendered moot by opening back in positive territory above 2751.00. Otherwise, extending the young decline through the morning could produce aggressive bounces along the way down — which I would be more interested in selling than buying.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] (Note: The bias-down target was misreported last night. It is 2745.00) Exiting the open under 2747.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2750.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2742.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2745.00 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal — its renewed target is essentially the 2739.75 area, whose break through 10:15 would next target 2730.75.
Phonetic dictation…
well good morning it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays Morning Market to her and there’s something you don’t see every year I haven’t seen it this year at least that’s a pretty big reaction down through a concerted timing window substantial drawdown to dance to at least downtrend happens to be a basement not very complete so I’m expecting more unless one thing happens only one thing first of all it’s point out how we got here and just to reiterate every single day the open already in Decline so at least this is qualifying yesterday so near the open that sponsorship tends to be weak handed or at least in need of reinforcements so it was doubly important to find out how coming back for those reinforcementsit is 2745 which turns out to bid influential and will be influential if it’s recovered not as influential as if 2750 is recovered or 51 yesterday’s open and basically closing levels and more so if there’s since Rock camping up having proved under yesterday’s range overnight there is only one other bullish set up a voice signal for this morning’s open. That we can’t rally without a bow that overnight probe to the overnight by recovering before the open to Gap or not the Gap at the open back above yesterday’s was the mornings Lowe’s preferably back in positive territory all together that would isolate this overnight drop everything to get to the market just whateversoalright fast forward so 3725 is being tested here overnight so far as the low notice anything about previous price action that has developed there it is been basically doing this window after the afternoon bias environment Friday afternoons by its environment had lapsed and then Monday morning during the open during the otherwise your relevant open don’t make anything of the different sizes in these rectangles are drone free hand to the point being that this is a recovery if it does launch recovery not just back above the bias down Target but above the bias down signal and back into positive territory gold and silverabove the weeks prior highs if gold break higher is rejected early then we’ll give it a benefit of the doubt that perhaps the rubber band snapping back down that it was waiting for that news that it was held up artificially but without reacting down through the morning and gold that’s the line in the stand silver as well although it’s not performing as bullishly overnight optimistically has goldinsteadall right Looney trying to hold this 80 3738 area to produce a reaction up a test of the spiked High which is often tested I can’t really get a short off while waiting for that until that happens the pound bouncing again just widespread bouncing I noticed that the Gap backup to Monday’s close is being attacked neutralized that and modest upside Potential from there if any and the Aussie bouncing 15300 and it’s been straight down since then two more fresh Lowe’s while it is bouncing seems to be bouncing on the news or at least ultimately the other the real premise that we have is at or the other pretty much to a new I what is a day in crypto anyway
.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2758.50 | 2759.00 |
| …would target | 2764.00 | 2764.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2749.50 | 2750.00 |
| …would target | 2745.50 | 2745.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s overnight range broke higher very near the open, which is usually unsustainable. In fact, it was retraced back down to “lower prior highs” at 2748.00 from 2753.50. That opening range was round-tripped once more but never probed any lower. And there was still time for the bias environment to fulfill its 2757.50 bias-up target by 1 point.
The afternoon bias environment probed higher to 2760.00 but was exited under the morning’s highs. Selling resumed, although signals were slow to extend, but ultimately retested the 2751.00 opening print. Similar opening and closing levels at a new extreme often identify that extreme as being durable. So, any distributive or reversing price action will be that much more credible.
Meanwhile, there’s Tuesday afternoon’s bias-up. It triggered, barely, after barely invoking the grace period. And it barely printed a higher high. But however shallow, it did print a higher high, and the opportunity to reject it was not exploited. So its 2765.25 bias-up target barely becomes “unfinished business above.”
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down again Tuesday without recovering intraday confirms Monday’s break under the 1.2060 sell signal. Bouncing first to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 1.2100 close would be likely to reverse back down more substantially. But first extending down to lower prior highs at 1.1950 would have a better chance at launching a new rally leg.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s first session not to probe a prior session’s high was followed by overnight weakness that attacked the 1308.85 sell signal. Extending lower without delay could also accelerate into a down-crash.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness retested Monday’s probe of last week’s lows, actually touching the 16.95 sell signal, which held to avoid triggering a reversal.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already sitting at or under uptrending pivotal support for the second time since it had formed, its immediate rejection at Tuesday’s open was the only bullish path higher. But overnight weakness suggested otherwise, and the morning dipped sharply back to and through last month’s 150-14 prior low to at least 150-06.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
There was no bullish reason to retest 61.10 as support, or to further delay resuming the rally targeting 64.25-64.75. The overnight blip-up to 62.55 wasn’t retested immediately, but eventually Tuesday morning start probing above it. Extending higher through the afternoon attacked 63.25 .
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s dip had filled the gap back down to Friday’s close, so that a close above 2.86 would be that much more reliable to launching a durable rally leg. Tuesday morning’s brief tests eventually probed more than a nickel higher to trigger the buy signal.