S&P
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2750.00 | 2749.75 |
| …would target | 2757.75 | 2757.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2741.75 | 2741.50 |
| …would target | 2736.75 | 2736.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday morning wasn’t as optimistic as last week’s relentless rally. But the containment lured in buyers with the promise of a new high. They got just that, that and only that, by 1-2 ticks.
The morning’s bias-down signal was never attacked, let alone triggered. Finally probing above Friday’s 2742.00 highs as the morning bias environment began lapsing, the afternoon’s bias-up signal triggered easily. The overnight high didn’t require being retested, but it was pierced, and it held. The afternoon’s 2750.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.”
Already fulfilling the requirement of Friday’s new trend high close for another, now there is no other unfinished business above. And there is no timing requirement to fulfilling 2750.25, which could be met overnight — whether or not that were to create another upside attraction would be important, but trending down through Tuesday’s open could extend.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s drop had held 1.2060 to avoid reversing the trend down. That was likely, since the rally’s 1.2025-1.2035 target area had yet to be fully tested, and a gap was outstanding above. Both were tested before last week ended. Overnight weakness gapped down Monday back under 1.2060 which now leaves outstanding another gap at 1.2100, but from a position of weakness.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday was the rally’s first day not to probe above the prior session’s high. It was an inside day, which helps to relieve the pressure from the ongoing up/down-crash pattern. Early trending Tuesday is less likely to extend, and likelier to reverse in the opposite direction.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday was the rally’s first day not to probe above the prior session’s high, but its intraday low probed under all of last week’s lows. This doesn’t necessarily mean momentum is reversing down, but any early weakness maintained through mid-morning would be likely to extend in that direction.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s strength was in the range and reversed through the morning to test the 151-16 prior low and uptrending pivotal support. Extending down to test the recent 150-14 low is likely if Tuesday morning doesn’t rally to at least attack 152-22.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s pullback to the target’s 62.10 target had held. Monday’s narrowly ranging session leaves no bullish reason to close back under it, and keeping alive the 64.50 area target. Back under 60.45 would signal momentum reversing down.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having held its 2.78 pullback limit on Friday, closing back above 2.86 would end the correction and resume the rally. Sunday night’s high touched 2.86 but Monday dipped to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 2.80 close. There is no bullish reason to further delay a recovery.
Mid-day Update… Not exactly a correction.
Rallying back into new highs.
Not recovering 2742.50 had all but marginalized buyers for the morning. Not maintaining a break under 2739.00 had avoided sellers gaining traction. Trending down or probing lower was possible, but not required. And now the morning bias environment has lapsed.
When moment the morning bias environment began lapsing, the upside limitation began failing. Probing above 2742.50 has extended nearly 5 points to attack overnight highs within 2 ticks.
The overnight high isn’t a new Globex trend extreme that would require intraday retest. But being so close, it’s retest is likely. And it’s retest is preferable before assuming any dip is extending down. Meanwhile, overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs also make any premature dip likely to recover for at least a retest of the high.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 9, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Jobs openings report isn’t high-profile, but it is reliable for influencing price action when it diverges from the prior Friday’s Employment Situation report.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
10:00 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET