S&P
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2682.50 | 2688.00 |
| …would target | 2687.75 | 2693.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2678.75 | 2684.25 |
| …would target | 2673.50 | 2679.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Noise in the range.
Overnight chop, meet post-open chop.
Last night’s range was contained within Friday afternoon’s range. But it flipped directions at least twice, steeply, to suggest this market wants to trend. That doesn’t then require trending, only trending attempts. Which the first hour has attempted, while either bias signal has remained comfortably untouched.
The pre-open dip back down to the earlier 2683.75 overnight low bounced through the open to attack Friday’s 2688.75 cash session close. Its reaction down to 2685.00 has been recovered entirely.
Probing higher has potential to test this morning’s 2691.00 bias-up signal. Perhaps not touched, possibly probed, but likely held during the bias environment. Any higher any later would be bullish, which would be suspicious for not yet having behaved bullishly.
Back under 2685.50 would have much more room to the bias-down signal. And much more potential to break lower into the afternoon as the first hour’s buying pressure is converted into selling pressure rushing for the exits.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another window opens.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
If seasonal holiday bullishness was influential Friday, then it was by absorbing the open’s dip. Thursday night’s 3-4 point bounce had failed already before Friday’s 2688.00 open. The reaction down into the open persisted through the bias environment exit, attacking 2682.00. Bouncing through the afternoon probed the open’s high by several ticks up to 2689.50, before dropping 3 points into the close. Not a wide intraday range, and never straying very far or for very long off of unchanged, but not rallying.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday afternoon’s range has contained a couple of wide swings since Monday night’s open. Friday’s last-minute dip was immediately retraced, entirely back to Friday’s late 2698.50 high. But no higher, and soon the night’s first dip was attacking Friday’s lows to probe negative territory at 2684.00. Its reaction up has been much shallower, barely attacking 2687.00 before dipping back down into negative territory at 2684.50.
If, then…
“Unfinished business below” at 2679.00 and 2675.50 would still be targeted by trending back down Tuesday. But the window is closing for seasonal bullishness to contain the drop — the sooner they’re tested, the easier to attract sponsorship for a recovery. Another seasonally bullish window of influence opens Wednesday afternoon ahead of Friday’s early close and another holiday weekend. In the interim is a brief window for sellers to influence price down, if they can. The 2688.00-2692.50 resistance range remains influential, and gapping up above it is probably the only path higher. Its minimum reward isn’t much higher, being new highs at 2699.75-2700.75 or 2703.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2688.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2691.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2684.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2680.75 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome welcome back it is December 26th a day after Christmas Tuesday it’s holiday shortened week not just because Monday was a holiday but also Friday will be closing early for another three day holiday weekend so seasonal bullishness that came in to last last week’s Market and prevented extending down would have been a couple of interesting mornings that nevertheless made Under Pressure through the day despite not extending down past the mornings low bounced on Thursday created some room to absorb a little more on Friday and now we come into a little bit of a window between that and the next weekendseasonal bullishness being a function of yo liquidityand there will be more of it next weekend so there’s a little window here today tomorrow maybe tomorrow into the afternoon where if there’s going to be declined at Now’s the Time to get it in here and if there’s going to be a decline contained this is also the time to get that done because of that seasonal boyfriend’s coming around so what might be an attraction or an objective there is an attraction and Wednesdays or low 2679 there is an objective at 2675 50 and bias Target outstanding an offsetting test actually that same sessions bias down TargetI tested it having been put into play by holding the offsetting test of the bicep Target which has otherwise contain door since contained price action anything lower starts to put in to Jeopardy deeper pull back 2667 area 2650 756 area show againwhich there is somewhat overnight there’s Friday’s recovery from the mornings low the entire buys apartment trying to down bounced and then pulled back into the clothes that was retraced but only retraced at last night’s open but not recovered we’re basically trending down overnight bounce low bounce on the way potentially do a little low one more lower low in here and we’ve got an overnight downtrend in playthat means under 26 83-75 would create a trend and would make the open likely to be under pressure in this area being under pressure makes the open likely to extender the morning likely to Extended 2679 2675 50 and if it gets done soon enough there will be enough time to inject a little more selling pressure little more distance down you can certainly get carried away with itself and be even more substantial than I’ve just described when there is a very brief window of time and it is going to be filled with one sponsorship things can get pretty steep and also deep so really will just bebut not be sitting there with a buy order add an objective not until being able to assess the price action leading into it same thing for Recovery there’s nothing that requires trending down here but recovering does pretty much required gapping up gapping up above Friday’s Highs at the least if not more so 2691 is the bias of a signal that will need to be recovered through 10:15 the reward for triggering bias up or for avoiding that window of selling pressure is the probe franchise 2699 75 20 703 that will be interesting if that’s the first move of the new week because as the last move of the last week gets underway that seasonal bullishness could get flipped on its head
.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2688.00 | 2691.00 |
| …would target | 2693.25 | 2696.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2677.75 | 2680.75 |
| …would target | 2672.50 | 2675.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 |
||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 25, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week has a busy econ calendar, but very few high-profile or influential items. Tuesday is the norm, with several items that have no track record for influencing price action.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET