S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s gap up immediately neutralized the 2590.50 “unfinished business above” that had been left outstanding from last Thursday afternoon’s pattern. It had provided context for anticipating the interim decline was only a temporary pullback. The gap up barely hesitated extending, resolving higher on tests of two prior resistance levels. Holding either one would have ended the rally there.
2600.00 was the likely objective for not rejecting the gap up. It was tested by a false break out of an otherwise narrow consolidation. The pattern is a “failed Ascending Triangle.” Its rejection broke back under the range ahead of the close, and then after. Typically, the reversal completes a correction — probably either to 2591.75 or to 2588.25 — and then recovers to resume the prevailing trend.
Evaporating volume into Thanksgiving makes it only more difficult to attract sponsorship for trending. There is no “unfinished business above” that requires a recovery or resuming the rally. Unless trending up to new highs through the open, then Wednesday morning’s likely scenario is backing-and-filling and retracing the rally.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Softening a little deeper Tuesday morning to 1.1730 still firmed back up to 1.1760, whose break through the close would trigger a deeper retracement if not also resume the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The volatility persisted Tuesday by the morning’s surge back up to 1285.00 resistance, whose recovery would be likely to resume Friday’s rally, especially if confirmed above 1288.00. Not closing above 1285.00 all but confirms Monday’s reversal down as being likely to extend to fresh lows.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday morning’s bounce did not extend above 16.95 and only overlapped it through the afternoon, requiring a close above 17.11 to reverse the trend back up and to avoid fresh lows at 16.50.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing above 154-00 overnight again was maintained this time for Tuesday morning to trade exclusively above the buy signal. Closing above it would trigger a new rally leg, still requiring confirmation of a second consecutive higher close Wednesday. But still overlapping it keeps the door open to at least testing 153-00.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s reaction down from Friday’s close above the 56.20 buy signal was recovered overnight and extended to fresh highs intraday. Wednesday’s EIA report is already being greeted from a position of strength. But also closing above the 56.85 confirmation would next target a retest of the two-week old intraday surge’s 58.00 test.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A fresh low overnight was recovered into Tuesday morning to range between the 3.04-3.06 triggers, whose break either way would be likely to trend in that direction. The afternoon drifted back down to the overnight lows, probably not on the way to greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Still ticking. CORRECTION
CORRECTION: The afternoon bias-up signal was mis-identified as 2600.00. It is 2601.50.
Actually, it’s trying to re-start.
The first hour’s rally to new highs extended slightly into the morning bias environment’s 2599.00 high. Apparently, ranging had already begun. It persisted through the noon hour, and out of it, triggering no-bias.
So, this afternoon’s bias environment has room to test its 2600.50 2601.50 bias-up signal. It’s being attacked now. It can be probed by several ticks, and overlapped to any degree. But 2600.50 2601.50 should define the bias environment’s upper-end. Trending any higher would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced.
Meanwhile, breaking out to 2600.50 2601.50 is actually the first attempt to extend the morning’s rally. It’s shallow — so far — and doesn’t have the luxury of backing-and-filling to refuel its breakout attempt. Reacting back down under 2597.00 would become likely to reverse the intraday trend back down, whether to 2591.75 or 2588.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 22, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Being the day before Thanksgiving when most travel occurs, Wednesday’s volume tends to evaporate quickly into the afternoon. It is nevertheless the week’s busiest economic calendar, loaded both with high-profile and influential items. And FOMC Minutes will be released when volume has slowed the most in the afternoon.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
12:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2602.50 | 2601.50 |
| …would target | 2607.25 | 2606.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2594.75 | 2594.00 |
| …would target | 2589.35 | 2588.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.