S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2585.00 | 2584.00 |
| …would target | 2591.50 | 2590.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2576.25 | 2575.25 |
| …would target | 2569.25 | 2568.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Was the bullish WedEX influential Friday afternoon? The day ended by probing the morning’s lows, finally. But only overlapping, and in a relatively narrow range, which began by the first hour’s Inertia signal. No pattern that developed Friday is going to be reliably predictive. So, bullish WedEX remains credible for producing a rally throughout Monday morning. A rally would still be credible from any open, even from gapping down, unless trending down through the open.
Separately, the 6-point pullback from Thursday’s rally, which had extended to 10 points overnight, is now 13 points at 2576.50. That’s the room for noise to a 61.8% retracement of Thursday’s range. And it’s a 38.2% retracement back down to Wednesday’s 2555.50 low. If that hasn’t sufficiently stretched the rubber band to snap back up, then the week-long decline may resume with a vengeance.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
REMINDER: This weekend’s Saturday Review is cancelled. The chaRTroom will re-open with Sunday night’s Globex session at 6:00pm ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not confirming Tuesay’s breakout on Wednesday had made Thursday weakness likely. Thursday’s shallow weakness was unlikely to extend Friday, so it firmed back up into the range. Ultimately, 1.1760 remains unlikely to be recovered before returning to new lows.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying sharply to fresh highs Friday above 1285.50 is targeting 1301.00 and potentially 1313.00. Being a Friday breakout, immediately follow-through requires pullbacks to hold 1290.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s rally above 17.11 probed the 17.30 buy signal through the noon hour’s exit. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a breakout.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping a little deeper overnight still avoided trending Friday beyond the prior several sessions’ range, despite bouncing into the noon hour up to 154-05.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holding the 55.35 pullback limit for three days finally resolved by rallying sharply overnight to the 56.00 buy signal, and then through it Friday to attack the 56.65 confirmation level.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying overnight probed above downtrending resistance of the two-session Falling Wedge pattern, but held the trendline’s last contact point and 3.12 to avoid reversing the trend up. At least a retest of 3.05 is likely.
Mid-day Update… What did I miss?
Nothing.
This morning’s bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. It came within view of lapsing 10-15 minutes earlier. And only several minutes prior to that, another blip-down probed a fresh session low 5 ticks under 2579.00‘s prior low.
Then it was right back up into the range, testing 2582.25 resistance. Through the noon hour. And now into the afternoon bias environment.
Nothing about this persistent ranging indicates that sellers are marginalized. Or that buyers have a pulse. WedEX’s influence is now relevant. It doesn’t require trending, and doesn’t prevent a downdraft. But a downdraft would be likely to recover back above its origin. And there’s potential to drift, firm, or rally into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 20, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s post-open LEI has a reliable track record for influencing price action, and it’s also high-profile. But it’s the session’s only report.
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET