S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s failure to confirm Tuesday’s breakout extended slightly lower into Thursday’s open, and essentially remained exclusively in negative territory intraday. Price was still contained within Tuesday’s range for a second consecutive session, suggesting that momentum hasn’t yet versed down — or else requires gapping down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming to range Thursday within the 1277.50-1280.50 range leaves the pattern vulnerable to break in either direction into the weekend, which would be credible for extending into next week.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly and extending slightly higher intraday was largely contained between 17.05-17.11 and remained vulnerable to closing under 16.95 and resuming the decline.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight didn’t help to confirm that Wednesday’s test of 154-02 would resolve up. Thursday’s narrow inside day at least avoided closing back under 153-22. Back under 153-00 would start to signal a retest of 151-16 or new lows under 150-16.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fluctuating narrowly for a second consecutive session Thursday essentially held the 55.35 pullback limit which keeps alive the 56.00-56.65 buy signal.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted neither from a position of weakness nor strength. The session’s initial bounce was retraced to retest Wednesday and Thursday’s lows down to 3.05. Closing back above 3.12 would resume the rally, but there is otherwise room down to 2.97-3.00.
Mid-day Update… Running out of attractions above.
Detour powered by fumes.
Anticipation for today’s tax reform vote in the House (which just began). Reaction to five consecutive gaps down that held tests of 2563.75 support. 
Overkill and extension of a corrective bounce. A combination of these, and more. Whatever the catalyst to today’s rally, it has been productive.
And it has neutralized a lot of upside attractions. Gaps back up to Tuesday and Monday’s closes. Ineffectual pessimism and upside traction that had suggested the week’s decline would at least be corrected. And now the closest thing to an upside requirement — the gap back to last Wednesday’s 2590.50 close — is in-play as this afternoon’s bias-up target.
Meanwhile, resistance at 2588.00 is being influential. Earlier, resistance at 2584.25 was influential, too. Its 3-point pullback resolved up, but there’s no assurance now of a shallow pullback or its recovery. And the current pullback just exceeded 2 points.
There has yet to be a fresh high since signaling bias-up. It’s too late to reject the signal, until exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under its 2579.25 bias-down signal. Reversing down prematurely would be entirely credible for extending down anyway, and without limitation. Otherwise, there remains potential to new highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s calendar isn’t bare, but its reports are neither high-profile nor influential to price action.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2586.25 | 2585.00 |
| …would target | 2591.50 | 2590.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2580.25 | 2579.25 |
| …would target | 2575.25 | 2574.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Let the gains begin.
Gap up extending sharply.
Buying the open was justified. The bullish scenario essentially required maintaining its gap up, if not also extending it. 
And opening at or above 2574.00 was the first hurdle to also exceeding 2577.00 through a relevant timing window.
The 2574.00 open surged immediately to attack 2578.00, testing an inflection point at 2576.50. Fluctuating around it no deeper than 2 points maintained the gap up, and finally resolved up to higher and higher highs. Exceeding the 2573.75 bias-up target through 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal, although it’s irrelevant since the renewed target is already met.
Hesitation at 2580.25 stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s 2582.00-2583.00 close. And 1-minute RSI actually got more overbought during the consolidation. The setup resolved up sharply, confirming that sellers are not being influential.
Rallying more steeply than the decline’s slope suggests that this is a correction. Impatience is a common characteristic. Regardless, keep in mind that corrections are not sponsored by strong hands, and we’re expecting an eventual resolution down. But currently there’s room down to 2577.00 before signaling the bounce is reversing.