S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s open ran into the same challenge as Monday, having trended down overnight. Post-open action differed slightly, first probing lower before recovering, unlike Monday’s impatient premature rally. But their recoveries resumed their similarities, with the morning’s high once again essentially defining the recovery’s peak.
An important difference between the recoveries’ peaks is that Monday repeatedly probed higher, while Tuesday barely attacked the morning’s high on several attempts. Monday’s ineffectual optimism was one marker of its tenuousness, which was proved by completely retracing its recovery. Tuesday’s pessimism can still prove to have been bullish from a contrarian perspective, by rallying overnight.
Time is growing short — if it hasn’t already grown too short — for a retest of last week’s highs and another downleg to be done by next Tuesday afternoon. Skipping the highs and only declining could extend very deep before the holiday’s seasonal bullishness intervenes.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
While waiting for the 1.1635 sell signal to trigger, Monday’s close under 1.1700 gapped up Tuesday to 1.1760 resistance. And extended sharply higher intraday to test 1.1825. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a bigger corrective bounce underway likely targeting 1.1965. Regardless, originating from a 2-week Island pattern suggests that any rally is only temporary.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing lower overnight retraced all of Monday’s bounce, and extended deeper through Tuesday’s open. Stopping $` short of filling the gap back down to 1268.70 was recovered back above Monday’s attack on 1280.50, nearly attacking the 1285.00 buy signal. Triggering it Tuesday would be credible for launching a rally.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Much of Monday’s bounce was retraced into and out of Tuesday’s 16.95 open, but not to fresh lows before recovering to retest Monday’s highs at the 17.05 bounce limit. The bounce limit held, but the decline must resume without delay if lower objectives remain in-play.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight extended higher intraday to test the 153-00 resistance that had defined the two prior sessions’ upper-end. There’s still room up to 154-02 just as a corrective bounce.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Selling finally accelerated to break free from the week-long narrow range. The 55.35 pullback limit was touched and so far has held as support. Closing any lower would delay retesting last week’s 57.90 highs. Back above 56.65 would signal the high’s retest underway.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down overnight from Monday’s bearish pattern greeted Tuesday’s open at 3.09 support. Fluctuating around it intraday down to 3.06 must be avoid a second consecutive lower close Wednesday to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… Neither here nor there.
Holding support and recovering resistance are two very different things.
CORRECTION: This morning I inadvertently referred to yesterday afternoon’s bias parameters in the Market Tour and Post-open Review. The cause for that has been corrected. Sorry for the confusion!
The test of 2566.75-2568.50 was aggressive, thorough, and brief. And it was almost rejected. It was also almost not rejected. Still overlapping 2570.00 at both 10:15 and 10:30 
neither held it nor rejected it. That’s okay — a higher signal can trigger by proxy.
Extending sharply higher after 10:30 tested 2578.00. Being this morning’s bias-down signal, during a bias-down environment, 2578.00 defined the window’s upper-end. Recovering it into the noon hour would have confirmed by proxy that 2570.00 had held recovered earlier. But 2578.00 was being attacked at noon. That’s okay — another signal can trigger a recovery.
2578.00 also defined the noon hour’s upper-end. That could have caused the noon hour’s exit to tumble and attack 2570.00. But it was likely a knee-jerk reaction to headlines of a bomb threat in Paris. Anyway, the afternoon’s 2573.25 bias-down signal was tested at 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias. That’s okay — but not for long.
Hopefully, the Paris threat will pass without incident. If so, then a recovery would have no excuse to further delay rallying back to yesterday’s 2586.00 high, if not also back to last week’s 2593.50 high and higher. Back above 2576.00 (now being tested) would start to signal a recovery underway. Back under 2572.25 would start to signal a bigger downleg underway. That’s okay — there’s a lot of buyers waiting at 2510.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 15, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open CPI is reliable for influencing price action. The post-open reports are high-profile, but otherwise not influential. Although, they’ll be likely to duplicate any noticeable reaction to CPI.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2582.00 | 2580.25 |
| …would target | 2588.00 | 2586.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2574.75 | 2573.25 |
| …would target | 2570.25 | 2568.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.