S&P
Mid-day Update… Spent.
Opening surge has yet to improve.
The open’s dip to 2566.75-2568.50 would have trapped shorts and refueled longs. Rallying straight up from there would have likely extended through the noon hour. But the open didn’t dip. And the pre-open dip held 2570.00. Too few shorts were trapped and longs weren’t terribly refueled.
Holding a test of this morning’s 2574.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 was still bullish. It put into play an offsetting test of the 2582.75 bias-up signal. And that happens to be the recovery’s high. Now having hovered shallowly through the noon hour, another break higher is likely.
At least, an attempt to break higher is likely. This afternoon is also a no-bias environment, and a test of its 2585.00 bias-up signal would likely hold. It could also push price back down. Otherwise, only breaking back under 2579.50 would be credible during the bias environment for launching a reversal of this morning’s rally.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s pre-open Fed speaker may affect price action, especially if it’s already trending as his comments have done historically. The pre-open PPI is also reliably influential to price action.
Charles Evans Speaks
3:05 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
8:15 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Charles Evans Speaks
3:00 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2587.25 | 2585.00 |
| …would target | 2593.25 | 2591.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2580.75 | 2578.75 |
| …would target | 2575.50 | 2573.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Overly-optimistic.
Bouncing prematurely.
If the overnight rally wasn’t going to produce a gap up that could rally into Tuesday, then another path higher was still available. But it necessitated dipping deeply first. And only briefly. Extending the overnight drop to test 2570.25 pre-open was a big part of that deeper dip. But it was too brief to produce a reliable base. And it was only pre-open, not intraday.
Testing any part of 2566.75-2568.50 post-open and recovering 2570.00 through a relevant window would have trapped shorts, and refueled buyers for a bigger rally leg. Bigger, and steeper, likely to reverse almost straight up.
Instead, the pre-open attack on 2570.00 was already recovering pre-open. The opening bars chipped away at this morning’s 2574.00 bias-down signal’s resistance. Meanwhile, price was reversing almost straight up to already attack the 2572.75 bias-up signal within 2-3 ticks.
An offsetting test of the 2582.75 bias-up signal would have been put into play once 2574.00 had held as support through 10:15. This morning the offsetting test was already fulfilled before being triggered. But it could have been exceeded, and wasn’t. The bias signals should define either end of the window if tested — at least, until the bias environment lapses or comes within view of lapsing 10-15 minutes earlier.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Delayed reaction.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday didn’t trend, but not for lack of trying. Its 2577.00 open was greeted by a relatively shallow recovery of a 14-point overnight drop. The overnight drop itself was a 61.8% retracement of Thursday afternoon’s 20-point recovery from Thursday morning’s 31-point loss. Thursday night’s slide could have resumed Thursday morning’s slide. Not rallying out of Friday’s open kept that door open. But choppiness around the 2577.00 open up to 2579.25 persisted through the afternoon bias environment. Only then did intraday action rally, and only temporarily before settling back down at 2579.25.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up and surged higher to 2584.50. Its reaction down was recovered, but only recovered before reacting down again. The second reaction down has become a reversal. Returning to Friday’s 2579.25 close did produce a 3 point bounce. But the reaction down has extended more than 1 point below Friday’s 2573.00 close.
If, then…
Gapping up this morning back above Thursday’s ~2584.00 highs was essentially one of the two paths back up to fresh highs. But Thursday’s highs held their tests. The other path higher is down, first, likely to 2566.75-2568.50. This circuitous route requires that at leas 2570.00 be recovered through any relevant window — such as the open, or the bias environment. Otherwise, the balance shifts even more to the downside, as the topping pattern starts rushing to begin its break lower.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2572.50 Would be likely to trigger the 2574.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2579.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
hi good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s and Morning Market or at the top women just point out that adobe seems to have rolled out a new something it’s not even a new version but some sort of new download that’s associated with this at least on the server side that I have encountered I noticed that they did take down the the chart room overnight they took down I believe all there they had a notice that they were doing maintenance apparently to introduce this new feature let me know please if it impacts your experience with the rim at all in any way good or bad I think so let’s move forward and look at what’s happened overnight because the open gapped up it really we could say capped up and certainly wasn’t someone and not some anomaly Friday afternoon that traded back under the cash and close the cash and clothes basically equated to 2580 25 that resistance then support that actually fight his cash and clothes but into the settlement price slipped back down to what have been the morning size that wasn’t an anomaly post and close where we often see a gap up like that literally gapped up to 8025 tried probing higher try to couple times to probe higher and has since giving it all back and then reversed into negative territory not just a negative territory but back down to 2573 that’s Friday is low probably at this hour we haven’t returned to Friday’s low just to try rallying again so I suspect Fridays wrote low is going to be giving it way remember Fridays open at Friday’s open extended the overnight recovery attempt overnight slide that retraced 61.8% of Thursday afternoon’s recovery had that constructive pull back then exploited at the open and not the latest recovery its resumption then I would have been entirely credible to resume the rally to resume 30 at Thursday afternoon I didn’t immediately recover and the morning and the afternoon by the market was held in a range and finally broke higher late and rejected so in order to extend this morning back to the remains of possibility even with the reversal down this morning we’re still not out of the orbit of last week but in order to get back up there this morning today’s open needed to be already recovering above Thursday’s highs Thursday and I just didn’t get it done and so the other which also happens if the other Thursdays noon hour range to return back down into Thursday but remember the otherwhatever window test must be Thursday before dipping to a relevant level 63 75KFX retraced into the 6675 6850 area than that window say the open say the bias environment whatever must be exited back above 2570 otherwise it’s not being rejected sellers are gaining traction and the bigger decline their bigger topping pattern is just gaining momentum at that point and here now 2571 75 fresh Lowe’s so let’s get on from here I suppose we can point out the bias down Target itself is 6850 2568 50 2574 is the bias down signal if the timing window or if the open is exited under 6675 probably the 6850 bias down Target won’t be recovered through 10:15 renewing the bias down that would be our earliest indication that was probably not recovering that this is turning into something more substantial to the downside and I’m not going to say that this has any greater likelihood of becoming ugly we are actually I’m going to say that has a greater likelihood of becoming ugly but not an overwhelming certainly open the door to something more substantial I’m sure you seen the market to participate actually at the time but remember if this is giving way this last week last couple of weeks tax on 375 is giving away this morning there’s a lot of downside and it can happen in a hurry because that’s what’s Happening Here If last week’s highs aren’t being retested if this morning continues pushing away from them it’s because there’s a very sudden paradigm shift and I should point that was something that happened what would that do to the stock and it’s not good for the stock there is a pullback limited here you can keep an eye on just north of 20 to see how much of that is already discounted in the price alright other markets but it doesn’t have an indefinite amount of time before requiring it to end and resume the breakout attempt otherwise it’s not actually breaking out Euro course we’re still looking at a major on going down leg there’s a little break out of little saucer bottom not really a cumulative bottom but it bounced already in sued Looney trying to maintain a break or break out again actually really just flat overnight the pound having some difficulty there was already behind level on Friday fluctuated around that it’s open and then overnight there’s some political turmoil and that’s rejecting that all together to get back down to 130 90 and lower so looking at this as emulation today’s probe under theexcuse me if this probe under these prior Lowe’s or down to really doesn’t have to test a new level under 130 55 just fill in his Gap closing back above called 131 that would be a pretty good sign that this is continuing to accumulate RC still in its range Silvers break lower targeting 1670 1650 have an extended that here but the bounce them it is not 6095 about Sonic now is 1705 gold also not extending its break lower overlapping the last leg was still overlapping 1275 50 but unless 1250 is recovered looking for this Gap filled and the 1260 1260 850 area but there’s definitely potential for that prior law to be tested in the mix this is not a breakout this is a cell signal out of range there’s a limit that held a test it was violated violated the clothes under 153 which then targeted at least 152 what 5201 actually won 5201 tested you can even crsi divorce positively on it but if 153 today through the clothes and it’s getting a good opportunity serving as a destination in a flight to safety if that can’t be leveraged into a recovery even just to test the violated fullback when it then not just 5104 but potentially new Lowe’s under 15040 Norm play not a lot of action and crude oil still and natural gas which didn’t really explain Thursdays stability in the face of a t I didn’t really explain it that Friday still in that range or slipping good luck today
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