S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2588.75 | 2585.50 |
| …would target | 2593.50 | 2590.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2581.00 | 2578.00 |
| …would target | 2575.75 | 2572.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s 2586.00 bias-up target was met to within 2-3 ticks. It’s still an attraction so long as price remains in its orbit, and doesn’t break under a prior low. But it does not become “unfinished business above.”
That attraction above may have helped to avoid any late reversal — whether a steep collapse, or shallow backing-and-filling. It’s already difficult on a Friday to reverse down after exiting the afternoon bias environment at fresh session highs. In fact, the nearest sell signal at 2582.75 was only touched and not triggered while being attacked 2-3 times during Friday’s last 60-90 minutes.
Late price action fluctuated around 2583.50, which was the optimal level for a new trend high close on a Friday. Clearing all prior intraday ranges would be preferable, but Wednesday’s 2585.50 high was only touched before its obligatory resistance reacted down.
The next higher objective at 2590.50 remains outstanding. Two weeks of expanded volatility is likely to persist after the weekend. We’ll discuss those topics, their implications, and more during this weekend’s Saturday Review.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Look for email in the morning containing the link to this weekend’s Saturday Review, which starts at 9:30am ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Blipping-up in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report stretched the rubber band more tightly than had the corrective bounce into Tuesday’s high. Snapping back down through the morning probed under Wednesday’s 1.1635 low, positioned to resume the decline into and out of the weekend.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already testing 1277.50 as support before Friday’s Employment Situation report, the reaction eventually broke lower to test 1266.50 support which the prior Friday’s dip had held. Any lower would require probing under the month-old 1263.00 area low.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hesitation at the 17.11 buy signal suffered its consequence Friday of spiking back under 16.95. The gap back down to Tuesday’s 16.66 close is an attraction, and its test would be vulnerable to extending to the outstanding 16.50 target.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Spiking up ever slightly touched 154-00 in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. The balance of the session ranged choppily and narrowly back to Thursday’s test of 153-14, not decisively recovering it, so keeping alive potential for another dowddraft to 152-10.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallied overnight to fill the gap back to Wednesday’s 54.88 gap up. It was eventually repeated intraday, while extending to within a dim of the 55.70 target.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Overnight action had firmed to open Friday at the 2.97 buy signal. Firming further intraday tested 2.99, triggering the buy signal. Almost any further strength Monday morning would confirm momentum is reversing up.
Mid-day Update… Fashionably late, again.
Morning’s range resolves up into the afternoon.
2574.00 support held a test, a touch and an attack while interim bounces chipped away at 2577.00 resistance this morning. 
Recovering 2578.00 as the bias environment began lapsing was a likely marker of a valid breakout. Trending up relentlessly into and out of the noon hour is retesting Wednesday’s highs.
Structurally, today’s rally has done the minimum required by retesting Wednesday’s 2581.50 opening print. Calculably, Wednesday’s 2580.00-2585.50 opening range is being retraced by 61.8% up to 2583.75, and any higher would require at least fully retracing the high. As for patterns and timing windows, triggering this afternoon’s 2580.50 bias-up signal has put into play its 2586.00 target.
Fulfilling the 2586.00 target and avoiding a new trend high close on a Friday would not necessarily reverse momentum down, but it would not be bullish. And reversing down remains a risk today, since buyers are once again late to start trending. Regardless, nothing is threatening the 2590.50 higher objective that remains in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar is empty but for a Fed speaker who is generally reliable for triggering a price reaction. A reaction during the noon hour when he speaks may be short-lived.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
12:10 PM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET