S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s gap up didn’t immunize the session from being able to probe Monday afternoon’s range to fresh lows. But gapping up did enable more room to expend selling pressure without it damaging the recovery’s chart.
Recovering from the open’s selling pressure defined the morning’s high, and then also the noon hour and afternoon bias environment’s highs. The final hour arrived with an attempt to break higher, but it only got to 2575.50. Tragedy on a bike path in New York may have been responsible for reacting back down into the range to 2571.00.
Wednesday’s opening setup remains unchanged from Tuesday. Gapping up would likely extend higher intraday, its objective being a retest of Friday’s high. Reacting down from a gap up would be at risk of extending down into Monday afternoon’s range, and and through it to test 2560.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming slightly further Tuesday morning filled the gap back up to Thursday’s 1.1685 close. There’s still room up to 1.1735 or 1.1760, but the decline remains likely to resume.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Attacking bounce’s the 1280.50 objective Monday reversed down Tuesday morning to attack the original 1266.50 pullback limit. Holding its test would maintain potential for bottoming without first probing new lows. The open’s gap down does suggest that sellers are weak-handed.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering at Monday’s highs into Tuesday’s open was soon reversed down to attack the pullback’s original 16.60 low, presumably on the way to fulfilling the 16.50 target below.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming further overnight almost touched the 152-20 bounce limit that encompasses the “higher prior lows” tests and allows the downside momentum to remain intact.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s test of the 54.15 objective was maintained overnight above the 53.88 pullback limit for the next higher objective at 55.70 to remain intact. Tuesday extended to fresh highs above 54.50, greeting the post-close API and Wednesday’s EIA reports from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Avoiding a fresh low on Monday only made the inevitable likely to be more substantial or durable. Gapping down Tuesday under Monday’s low extended to fresh lows at 2.88.
Mid-day Update… Held back, but holding up.
Still fluctuating around the open.
This morning’s likelier scenario was to fluctuate sideways, essentially within yesterday afternoon’s 2567.00-2571.00 range. The gap up’s reversal back into yesterday afternoon’s range had crept lower to gain traction that made its recovery unlikely.
Ultimately, the post-open dip was retraced back up to this morning’s 2574.25 bias-up signal. No higher, as a recovery this morning had become unlikely. But the dip into yesterday afternoon’s range was recovered, so the sideways ranging has developed around the 2573.00 opening print.
The afternoon’s bias environment has triggered no-bias. Meanwhile, buying pressure isn’t being expended, but is it being conserved for use when the bias environment lapses? Still hovering at session highs into the bias environment exit would be vulnerable to rallying through the close. Otherwise. breaking back under 2571.50 would open the door back into yesterday afternoon’s range and lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 1, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The econ calendar’s busy week is at its busiest on Thursday, with the most high-profile and influential reports. ADP sets the tone before the open, and gives us an advance indication of sentiment heading into Friday’s report. Two post-open manufacturing reports are staggered, including Construction, and likely to react however ADP might have done. Volatility may go into hibernation ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2579.25 | 2576.50 |
| …would target | 2584.25 | 2581.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2572.75 | 2570.00 |
| …would target | 2567.75 | 2565.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.