S&P
Post-open Review… Not so fast.
Post-open dip fills gap.
The overnight recovery had resumed pre-to test tested the 2568.25 bias-up signal by 3 ticks. That was quickly pierced by another tick post-open. Any higher would have triggered a buy signal, but its touch held. And its reaction plunged 5 points — down through a 2266.25 sell signal to 2264.50.
The low’s retest touched 2263.25, filling the gap back down to yesterday’s 2263.50 close. That’s natural support, and it has produced a bounce back up to 2566.25.
Meanwhile, holding a test of this morning’s 2568.25 bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2560.25 bias-down signal. Back above 2567.50 would start to suggest the gap-fill has produced enough support for a detour back up to yesterday’s highs.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Leaving a gap behind.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday was an “outside day,” gapping up above Friday’s high and closing under Friday’s low. Its 2576.75 opening tick immediately succumbed to the the morning’s bearish WedEX influence, which lasted through the bias environment’s 2570.25 low. WedEX wasn’t responsible for the trending down through the balance of the session. A test of the morning’s 2567.25 had been put into play, helping to maintain the decline. Was it a lack of buyers, or new sponsorship, that helped the decline extend to its next lower objective at 2562.00. No new “unfinished business” was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex immediately pierced a fresh low down to 2561.50, then began firming. A narrow range began forming upon touching 2566.50. A brief break lower barely touched 2562.50 before snapping back up into the range — and now through it. A fresh overnight high was just touched at 2567.50, within 3 ticks of this morning’s bias-up signal.
If, then…
“Outside days” often reflect a near-term trend extreme. This may have prevented Monday from confirming Friday having put into play a new rally objective of 2590.50. The go-ahead signal required only a second consecutive close above 2563.75, which Monday’s close was still testing. Reinstating a higher objective for the rally would require closing above Monday’s 2576.75 high (not Sunday night’s 2577.25 high), and then overcoming this new area’s rejection habit that Monday established. Regardless, another rally attempt may be made since “unfinished business above” remains outstanding by the requirement for at least one more new trend high close. Will that effort be made prior to Monday’s pullback extending slightly lower low to probe under 2560.00 or down to 2556.00?
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2570.25 would be likely to trigger the 2568.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2566.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it says Tuesday’s Market to her started the week with that Burruss wedding X influence that was pretty productive for the time that it was influential through the morning we’re tracing back down to 2577 e 25 basically retracing the entirety of Friday afternoons games haven’t held a touch of the biceps signal and I’ve suggested the bias down signal at 6725 West Point in the play had been putting to play the game unfinished business below and attracted price lower pretty much a racing Fridays Post open games hand Byers never coalesced weather that’s because whether that’s what happened or seller’s discontinued to overwhelm the decline extended holding bounce limit after bowel movement and ultimately 6725 which was 2562 pretty much racing all of the gay guys from last week’s Wednesday’s higher or lower post close to 6150 which then officially did all of Friday’s games from Thursday’s close so what does that mean closing Beyond there’s a lot of situation happens to be outside more often than you think because they have expended a lot of energy from a new extreme we’re dealing with a similar setup and natural gas that the trend it certainly means that it could turn into yesterday sponsorship 225 60 rejected the upside to be putting into play some deeper pull back and likely a pull back because even though we’re still looking for some fresh clothes and closes on Friday typically don’t happen without even an expiration obscure obfuscation of expiration as welldirections to threaten reversing the trend out the final Arbiter there would be 25 ft alright so as for this morning well overnight bounced lives at 6150 touch and then bouncing raining sideways really that’s your UPS opens down here but which were more bullish optimistic and pessimistic produced a bounce the Rangers up around but nothing that hadn’t been done already and so there’s the lower-end being pierced that wasn’t apparently that’s not the markets in 10 so it has bounced to a fresh fire at least as challenging me overnight High’s it’s Bounce has come to bounce 225 6750 is come to within three types of this morning’s bicep signal 6825 open exit in under 60 15 minutes 25775 to suggest early that the bicep signal will trigger or is making it to make it clear we have several reports this morning the pre open reports open report. Is Redbook it’s not influential typically it happens to be influential to so which is up coming next week which is controversial right now so there’s a price reaction track record of influence but we need to see that recovers back of a high 88 recovery for the otherwise 1760 again again noticably could this be the eventual break possibly historically probably not but continues to be yesterday actually so there’s no available today optimistic optimistic when it still has a retest 131 at least which was attacked not at allFriday’s close that was a pullback that hit its full bag of jective that would bounce at the Bounce stop short and is now broken under that pull back so potentially it’s still a consolidation potentially it’s still just raging but it’s not a setup it’s actual this point gold bounce yesterday search significantly held to the close of a relevant level 50 it’s a little weaker overnight but just stay away from breaking Under 12 7750 hi hi and that would be enough for me to give every benefit of the doubt pattern is bottoming still need 1288 to recover though through the clothes to confirm that momentum is actually up copper silver should do the same thing less substantial initially but still closing about 17 which continues to be a relevant level so closing under-17 today closing at 2:17 today would still have the same effect just closing slightly under 1717 inflection point cuz it really is even though we see all this action down here this congestion I don’t think 17 is just closing 1717 it would be unlikely at this stage 1711 would be pretty in Polish at least indicating a test 1730 coming likely it’s 1730 recovery though that makes the difference to the pattern Long Pond Which Wich pics crude oil this pattern suggests that at least this morning needs to prove that rally is underweight And if yesterday’s rejected aggressively really no excuse and finally Natural Gas that was already actually the end of the week 32 x 9Lily earlier not much of a beat there but still lot of optimism lot of good headlines coming in to at least try to get a test of the biceps signal which if it holds would put into playing off so I can test of the bias down signal that’s 2560 25 but we know that would probably amount to Provo or slight Pierce at least under 25 60 and maybe even the trigger by step alright any questions and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2570.50 | 2568.25 |
| …would target | 2577.00 | 2574.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2562.50 | 2560.25 |
| …would target | 2556.25 | 2554.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s 2576.75 opening tick was the session high. Its 4-point dip was recovered to touch the morning’s 2575.75 bias-up signal. Not recovering it put into play a test of 2567.25. Fresh lows during the afternoon bias environment fulfilled it, but that was after the morning’s bearish WedEX influence had lapsed. So, the afternoon’s sellers were different sponsorship. New sponsorship.
Meanwhile, that new sponsorship extended the afternoon’s decline. A simultaneous positive divergence in both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs was ignored at 2569.00. More strong-handed sponsorship was observed when exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low, confirmed by fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. The decline extended to touch last Wednesday and Thursday’s “lower prior highs” at 2562.00.
Monday was an “outside day” which often reflects a near-term trend extreme, usually not extending the reversal immediately. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding by a requirement for at least one more new trend high close, which the market can ignore during a correction. A slightly lower low under 2560.00 or down to 2556.00 could define the pullback. But Friday’s new high close has been rejected just enough to undermine the next higher objectives.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Slipping further Sunday night retraced the balance of last week’s interim bounce from 1.1775. The next lower objective at 1.1760 remains in-play, as well as its likely break.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The original 1277.50-1280.50 pullback target had been attacked as support Friday, and then probed entirely Sunday night into Monday morning’s attack on 1273.50. A Fed-related headline triggered a spike up into positive territory above 1280.50 to suggest sellers are trapped. Closing higher Tuesday — preferably above 1288.00 would reverse the trend up.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s weakness initially held Friday’s 16.95 low, but Monday morning attacked 16.85. A Fed-related headline triggered a spike up into positive territory testing 17.11. Closing above 17.30 is still necessary to sealing a bottom, but closing Tuesday above Monday’s high would be credible for extending higher.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow choppy ranging overnight firmed at one point Monday morning up to 152-20. Its recovery would be compelling for starting to reverse momentum up, but the actual buy signal remains 153-00, or else a deeper dip to 151-18 remains likely first.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Monday flat with Friday’s close firmed through the open, but mostly gravitated back to or toward unchanged. Regardless, the constructive backing-and-filling should be done, leaving little or no reason not to resume the rally by Tuesday morning.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s premature bounce from a fresh low to back above the inflection point had extended higher Friday, and then gapped up Sunday night. Testing resistance at 3.00 requires the recovery to hold 2.95 as support, and closing back under it would likely retest 2.84.