S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap up extended higher to 1.1895 before reversing back down to its 1.1870 opening print. Gapping open Friday back to and through Wednesday’s ~1.1835 close would resume the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s low had left only $1 of room to fully test the 1277.50-1280.50 pullback target, but overnight action fulfilled it to within a dime. Thursday’s open was already testing the 1288.88 buy signal, and probing it by up to $4, so not actually triggering it would be as bearish as it would have been bullish.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding 17.00 Wednesday allowed closing back above 17.11 to signal the correction had ended. Thursday’s gap up to 17.11 extended higher through the morning. .
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s open gapped up to the 153-14 buy signal that had been probed by Wednesday’s gap down to 152-26 “lower prior highs.” Trending up through the morning filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 154-02 close. Closing any higher Friday would confirm the recovery was extending higher.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Thursday to attack 51.00 needed to close back above 51.55 for the 52.55 target to remain intact. The intraday bounce tested 51.55 by a dime.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. So the knee-jerk reaction’s blip-up to 2.88 reversed down sharply through the 2.82 objective to fresh lows at 2.77. Closing back above 2.84 does begin to s the trend is at least bottoming.
Mid-day Update… One-off?
Noon hour exited above morning’s range.
It’s still negative territory, 2-3 points under yesterday’s 2559.50 cash session close. 
But that’s a 3-4 points above the open’s 2553.75-2554.50 peak.
We already know the opening peak’s relevance, since we stalked it for short-entry. And its reaction was productive, both testing its renewed bias-down target 2546.25 objective and containing the selling pressure to the opening 45 minutes. The morning’s bias environment contained no downtrending, seriously undermining sellers.
Exiting the noon hour above that entire morning range is signaling that the overnight drop may have been a one-off. Not an anomaly, but possibly a warning shot across the bow. In either case, “unfinished business above” at yesterday’s highs may be tested before a durable collapse.
Now this afternoon has triggered noN-bias. Its 2556.00 bias-up signal need not define this window’s upper-end, and its bias-up target need not be met. But the window is free to extend anyway, which it’s trying, currently attacking 2558.00. Only a break back under 2553.75 would suggest another downleg may be underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 20, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Fed speakers are Friday’s only reliably influential events.
*Janet Yellen Speaks
time unknown
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2558.25 | 2556.00 |
| …would target | 2564.50 | 2562.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2550.50 | 2548.25 |
| …would target | 2545.25 | 2543.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Trying to bottom.
Pre-open bounce reacts down, too.
Firming back up to the 2550.75 bias-down target and greeting the open there told us before the open that a bounce to 2553.75 would be a compelling short-entry.
In fact, the first 3 minutes spiked up to 2554.75 and the next 3 minutes spiked back down. The first 45 minutes trended back down to attack 2445.00.
Bow a bounce is testing this morning’s 2550.75 bias-down target as resistance. Back under 2548.00 would signal the bounce had failed. Otherwise, even a bearish scenario could bounce higher this morning.
A bounce had better do more than that, and for longer, to avoid a more sizable downleg.
Why? Because just as expiration can influence price action, price action can influence expiration. The latter happens less frequently, but it may be happening today. Commitments reflected at the time of Wednesday’s close — which is the essence of the WedEX setup — can require reshuffling due to Thursday’s sudden plunge. And that can exacerbate the plunge.
Unless the open were to absorb the plunge.
Not absorbing the open’s plunge would next target 2543.00 and 2535.00-2536.00. Exiting the bias environment under its 2550.75 bias-down target would help to keep alive downside potential. But entering the noon hour back above the 2556.00 bias-down signal would suggest the plunge was absorbed.