S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Stretching and entrenching.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s pre-open dip barely touched Friday’s 2517.75 last-minute high before rallying to within 1 tick of the morning’s 2526.00 bias-up target. Sunday night’s action had developed exclusively in positive territory. Neither of which is bearish, but expressing so much optimism for so long and being fulfilled so quickly does tend to retrace. Especially when simultaneously overbought RSIs will ensure the retracement is only temporary. The morning’s dip to 2519.00 held its corrective pullback target. Recovering through the balance of the session finally touched the morning’s high at the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s last-minute pierce above the morning’s high had extended to 2528.00 through the futures close. The Globex open quickly retraced that to 2525.50 and then recovered to higher highs at 2529.50 into midnight. Complexity during the rally has created a “new Globex trend extreme.” Price action since then has softened gradually back down to 2527.25.
If, then…
Optimism remained alive and well during Monday morning’s correction of Sunday night and opening optimism. Its pullback held exclusively in positive territory. So, correcting the overnight optimism this morning should probe well into negative territory — of else not correct, at all. Last night’s high requires an intraday retest, which often prints the same day. I’ll be reluctant to sell before then, unless its near-term attraction is already rejected by opening under the overnight low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2525.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2527.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2528.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market to her interesting overnight in that it is somewhat similar in principle to Sunday night One important principle and that is it has essentially developed exclusively in positive territory little bit different Sunday night had surged at the open creating immediately creating room to absorb or expanded selling pressure without it damaging the chart expended immediately began expanding and of selling pressure to Rat Race that surge literally just as deeply as possible without reversing back down piercing really Friday’s range then of course we have to 6184 Tradesman and pre-open dip and in the opening surge more initial optimism creating again room to expand its selling pressure without damaging the chart and had a shower pull back to you yesterday morning that was touched by a tick Oracle point because that even though it doesn’t require of course there’s objectives below it like 2509 5506 2509 53rd Friday’s nobody has trending broke out so we know there’s retracement coming but 2509 doesn’t require any particular orbit that is going to be that is going to be capable of it’s not likely to offer some obligatory support on the way down so let’s talk about that yesterday with all that excessive optimism not just Sunday night and I don’t mean Sunday’s opening search but the entire night having developed exclusively in positive territory and then the mornings opening search not that it was an opening but then it quickly 2526 attacked so lot of Need for correction or likelihood at least of Correction fullback all of that action developed this morning it’s not likely to develop exclusively in positive territory I made two statements there and that is very action this morning will be unlikely to develop exclusively and likely to before I pull back touching the prior sessions range recovered do have another higher hi there is complexity so whatever and it went on to be 2950 today Austin that requirement is met the same day not always here’s a setup that would tell us it won’t be and that is if the open is back under the overnight low having dipped initially at the Globex overnight not as silly open but overnight and recovered do a higher high above the prior session so I have nothing to do with a new trend extreme just a new trend. I haven’t recovered to probe the prior sessions high after dipping back into it overnight that new set that trimmed that hire High tire low Trend can be rejected by opening under the overnight low so that’s 25 2558 25-25-25 if this morning which was pretty close to two points away 2 hours to go we can do that if the open is back under the open is back under the overnight low and maintaining the breaker that will ever ejected the New York to sell if the open isn’t rejecting the overnight highs of attraction or I’ll be reluctant to sell unless the guys were tested Post open but either one of those scenarios would open the door to a cell signal otherwise if the open isn’t already rejecting the overnight High then there’s nothing that forbids this from extending Ireland something that requires an intraday pull back and correction so eyes on the overnight High and a 59fifty range through the open one of the other being tested being probed the opening 15 minutes is going to give us the guidance for the morning for the day any questions 1760 which was attacked stopping optimistically short of it last week requiring a test will they test you can see the actual recognition of 1764 that’s an anchor basically and so this is only a temporary but it’s about able to do that still looking for that there was so I could be considered pretty big drop yesterday at the open so there’s room for noise on a balance and then we could see 134 easily we can see it be pierced and still maintain the down trip and the Aussie fresh low overnight there’s a lot of action in here it’s lower and lower lows the downtrend remains intact so I don’t have any bicycle silver didn’t do anything new over night that had been done still targeting 1650 it has a rejected that are indicated any inclination to reject it and gold as well while it has fulfilled 1253 test by at least a dollar nothing suggesting that it’s trying to buy them literally Gap flat to lower there’s a confirmed break out the requires the risk here is that it is not developing from a higher close is that a great trade it we’re just trying to identify a bottom at this point I would have preferred 5314 first break lower for that for that third lower close to be fulfilled or likely to recover more quickly but we are still looking for at least crude oil Natural Gas but didn’t really agree that we can suggest so still around 293 needs to avoid needs to avoid a second today to have a chance but even if there were an immediate rally after having touched at least they close today .
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2530.00 | 2527.50 |
| …would target | 2534.50 | 2532.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2522.75 | 2520.25 |
| …would target | 2516.00 | 2513.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at Monday morning’s 2525.75 high helped to recover from its reaction down to 2519.00. That had been the minimum corrective pullback target, and its test was complete. So, we know its recovery isn’t arbitrary. The sponsorship that had produced the morning’s high didn’t sponsor its retest.
2525.75 wasn’t recovered completely until Monday’s final minutes. And not for lack of proximity. Exiting the afternoon bias environment only hovered pessimistically short just under the morning’s high. Then only a later surge pierced a fresh high at 2527.00.
RSIs did not return to overbought territory. Monday’s new trend high close already fulfilled that requirement which was created Friday. There is no “unfinished business above,” and gapping down under 2522.00 or 2519.25 would be credible for trending back down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s open gapped down in reaction to the weekend’s Catelonian Independence vote. Extending down attacked last week’s low, itself an attack on 1.1760 whose likely break would extend the decline.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Lower lows overnight retested last week’s 1280.50 low deeper than was required, this time maintaining the test into Monday. Holding 1276.00 through the close, and then closing above 1286.00 would help to form a bottom.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Finally testing 16.60 Sunday night was already too late, making the decline likely to extend to test 16.50, too.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging Sunday night and Monday was only noise, as last week’s confirmed breakout requires an eventual third lower close. That lower close would be more likely absorbed by originating from a close back above 153-14.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Collapsing overnight greeted Monday’s session already testing “lower prior highs” at 50.75. Probing deeper intraday now allows a close back above 50.75 to target a retest of the high’s 52.50 gap up.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending down Sunday night greeted Monday’s open already testing the longstanding 2.93 attraction below. Trending down deeper through the morning now leaves “unfinished business above” from the gap back up to Friday’s 3.01 close.
Mid-day Update… Holding up.
Firmed during the noon hour.
This morning’s reaction down from attacking 2526.00 got to 2519.25 likely corrective pullback objective. It was being pierced by 1 tick at noon. Reversing back up through the entire noon hour reached 2524.00. The bounce held its ground into the 1:20 bias timing window.
The afternoon’s 2525.25 bias-up signal was barely attacked to within 1 point. This being a no-bias environment, the next hour may only range choppily sideways, or dip back down to the 2517.00 bias-down signal. Retesting this morning’s overbought RSIs at 2525.75 during the no-bias environment could prove too optimistic to be maintained. Especially as sponsorship starts dwindling and Tuesday news events start coming into view.
There’s still a template that would track ending the day in negative territory. But not exiting the noon hour in negative territory has left more paths back to the high, than lower.