S&P
Post-open Review… Will gravity take it from here?
Open’s blip-up attracts only sellers.
Pre-open action had returned to hovering pessimistically short of probing the 2506.00 high. The opening bar’s spike up to 2507.25 was retraced almost as quickly back down to 2504.75. Another surge back up to 2507.25 was resolved similarly, albeit more slowly. Slower, but more substantially, probing under the pre-open’s range down to 2503.75.
The dip lasted long enough not to trigger the 2507.00 bias-up signal. And having tested it, an offsetting test of the 2498.00 bias-down signal is now in-play.
Normally, gravity would suffice for attracting price to fulfill an offsetting test. Today, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC events, gravity is competing against anxiousness. Fresh lows aren’t assured, and neither is avoiding another test of the highs — more so if fresh lows haven’t yet been probed before the FOMC.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Holding up ahead of FOMC.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
If Monday afternoon’s detected shift to weak-handed buyers has had any effect on the rally, it has been to inhibit it. Tuesday’s inside day defended its 2505.00 gap up by absorbing a post-open dip. Not only the open’s dip to 2501.50, but also its retest. And what was the reward for defending not only one but two dips? An afternoon spent in a narrow 2-point range, hovering just under Monday’s 2506.00 high, fluctuating around the 2505.00 open. No new objectives were created, and none were left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Dipping into the Globex open attacked 2502.00, not much below Tuesday afternoon’s narrow range. Consolidating there soon resolved up, trending back to the narrow range’s upper-end. Consolidating there has yet to resolve either way.
If, then…
Even in ranging narrowly, there can be some predictive value. Yesterday afternoon’s narrow ranging developed pessimistically short of touching Monday’s 2506.00 high. Having endured through an entire timing window, at least an obligatory probe of fresh highs is likely. Gapping down under Tuesday’s 2501.25 low could suggest otherwise. Gapping down isn’t currently indicated, but the current narrow range doesn’t make that difficult. Meanwhile, like Tuesday’s setup, Wednesday’s likeliest path to reversing down would begin by probing and then rejecting a fresh high — early enough to be sponsored by stronger hands, and not from anxiousness ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC, or in a knee-jerk reaction to it. Otherwise, delaying a reversal down or avoiding it altogether could be bullish into the weekend.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2502.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2507.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning good morning and welcome it is Wednesday except for Wednesdays at Morning Market to her now about to go over to some principles to apply cuz we have a very narrow range again not through as many timing Windows as for instance last week last mid-week the prior week but we are getting into these this is a very trepidatious Market I don’t even know if that’s a word market so anyway it has been resolving up almost grudgingly through each of these there’s no reason why it can’t extend may be one reason to expect or to be where that it can’t expect extend or that if he tries extending its going to run into difficulty in that is again the comparison among the three major indexes that we made last on Saturday and followed up on Monday to see that there have been two consecutive sessions of rotation out of speculation and in the safety and that can certainly be attributable to what we’re seeing on the chart of what they were saying on the chart can be attributed to that as one if not a major underlying Factor but that doesn’t Point down it points to danger or risk of down and for that we have to have to come to fruition we have to actually see something by responding down quickly and then by extending that response in other words if there were in this is the same setup that we talked about for yesterday by the way yesterday result range and so the same setup as or can be applied today not infinitely or in definitely do that but just so you know we don’t get to keep applying the same principle of the same setup that is as time goes on the templates change but the next consecutive session that’s fine in this case yesterday and today opening within the price range if today does the same thing probing and in time for that to be the same timing window that is the method to reversing doubt it would have to extend down greet the Afternoon News from under some relevant level through that relevant window that is exiting the noon hour at the latest basically create room for a favorable me jerk reactions important meeting there’s going to be some speculation that there is going to be fed reducing its balance sheet or plans for that in addition to some signaling of who’s going to be involved in these things mean nothing to us but they create and they really mean nothing to Stronger Hands by the way there already involved they’ve already made their decisions are not going to react taking advantage of some sort of reaction to absorb reactions need jerk reactions to the press conference after work and we often see volatility as well we could see an afternoon and still resolved that we can see a lot of stuff there’s a lot of different but the one begins acting a probe of fresh Heights and doing it early enough so that it’s not later just ahead of the fomc or in response to the fomc not out of anxiousness not a new jerk reaction there’s also this afternoon or this evening is erev Rosh Hashanah which is the evening of the Jewish New Year and services begin and so traditionally a lot of Market participants will leave early or be ready to get on their way out the door at the clothes which typically means they’re not very active any longer than necessary which is not entirely possible this afternoon with the with the press conference but still owes itself or lends itself to some some contraction and volume and in liquidity to keep that in mind it would be difficult to see trending or get positioned for trending that’s just not going to have sponsorship for the same degree of sponsorship I didn’t look at the market with the overnight included and you can get a sense of the Ascension here cutting through a pivotal low will have a parallel uptrending support identified because that’s potentially catch in case of a pullback but even an ascending triangle refers to the formation itself not necessarily when the fireworks are really fun 4 FMC day it’s trying to it didn’t before and he can see from the volume really the change in front month that actually doesn’t change our calculable trigger similarly the pound don’t have it I’m not going to have a signal in this range the Looney which held on Monday and support and bounce nominally on Tuesday at least fernd still has not opportunity to rallied back to prioritize the Euro has really extended itself it’s God if you look at the overnight 5 touches now and more it’s really becomes irrelevant to continue counting we’re just looking for that break or that potential break yeah that uptrending liberal support is broken then at least the last two touches come into play and very likely the complete retracement back to the actual low and then a good job temporarily has yet to any of those and it’s not at it’s on the precipice little more volume there an inside day does not make the does not make the pattern anywhere bush and by the way eia reports after today’s close mid-morning and then natural gas tomorrow it’s being greeted bullishly as of now but we’ll see what today is close is but it’s probably it will be greeted bullishly preferably from a pulled back but Mondays brake higher which was overly aggressive Consolidated yesterday instead of being rejected so that creates a lot of room to absorb sewing pressure expense sewing pressure and to be able to absorb it without damaging the chart if there is a pull back today. Just this overnight but something a little bit deeper and his room down to 307 pretty interesting spot to greet tomorrow’s news any questions let me know.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2509.00 | 2507.00 |
| …would target | 2515.00 | 2513.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2499.75 | 2498.00 |
| …would target | 2494.00 | 2492.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The shift to weak-handed buyers that was signaled Monday afternoon hasn’t yet had an obvious effect on the rally. Perhaps Tuesday’s range bound session is the only evidence that we’ve entered a distributive phase. Monday had probed another fresh high, recovering from a mid-day slide, and Tuesday hovered under Monday’s highs.
But hovering just under Monday’s highs does all but require actually probing them. (The late touch of Monday’s 2506.00 high is the same thing.) For all the time stopping pessimistically short, at least an obligatory probe higher is likely. Even the most bearish scenario should pro would be well served by trapping weak-handed buyers at an extreme.
The bearish scenario should do that in the morning, so its rejection could begin in time to be sponsored by strong-handed sellers. Tuesday didn’t do that. Wednesday still can. But probing prior highs doesn’t ensure they’ll hold and reverse price down — especially when the prior session failed to exploit exactly that opportunity.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Another fresh recovery high Tuesday at 1.2050 was reversed to test the uptrending pivotal support emanating from the recent pullback low at 1.1745. Dipping back under 1.2015 would likely test 1.1945, and probably also retrace the entire recovery leg.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Tuesday morning helped to confirm the relevance of Monday having closed at 1310.50 support. But reversing the trend up was not likely to tolerate much of a delay. And the balance of the session fluctuated around 1310.50. Greeting Wednesday’s FOMC events from already closing above 1318.50 would have been much more reliably bullish.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday morning ranged flat-to-higher off of Monday’s test of 17.10 support, resisted by the 17.30 buy signal. Its recovery Tuesday would still be credible for at least filling the gap back up to Friday’s 17.70 close.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging flat-to-lower through Tuesday’s noon hour had pierced Monday’s 154-04 low by only 2 ticks, while RSIs diverged positively. The 154-30 buy signal remains intact, but not greeting Wednesday afternoon’s events from the position of strength possible by already having closed above it.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday extended Monday’s reversal from completing its pullback, but stopped short of touching Thursday’s high before reversing back down into Monday’s range. A fresh high close above 50.50 is required to extend the rally, which otherwise has no “unfinished business above” preventing its reversal down.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming ahead of Tuesday’s open tried extending Monday’s rally, but the balance of the session mostly ranged narrowly sideways. In any case, the rally was not rejected, so any pullback would likely be absorbed and recovered.