S&P
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2506.00 | 2503.75 |
| …would target | 2510.75 | 2508.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2500.00 | 2498.00 |
| …would target | 2494.75 | 2492.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
This is getting terribly interesting.
Friday’s new trend high close had created the requirement for at least one more eventual new trend high close. Monday has already fulfilled it. It was fulfilled by a late bounce that followed sellers attracting strong-handed reinforcements. So, presumably, Monday’s new trend high close was produced by weak hands.
The late bounce also retested the 2501.00 gap up. The bounce originated from touching Friday’s 2498.00 high, neutralizing the opening gap’s attraction above. Again, neutralizing the attraction above with weak-handed sponsorship
This is not necessarily bearish. But it is not bullish, and avoiding a detour down might depend on extending the rally Tuesday without delay. Already reversing down at Tuesday morning’s bias environment exit would be bearish.
Meanwhile, the three-index comparison we discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review saw NDX diverge for a second consecutive session. And the Dow extended sharply higher again. Speculation is rotating into safety, adding to the rally’s vulnerability.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s brief test of the 1.1845 pullback objective was apparently sufficient to launch a recovery. At least, more sufficient than I had assumed, because Sunday night’s open gapped up above Tuesday’s ~1.2000 high, and Monday probed higher to test 1.2025. Only slightly higher, and only temporarily, dipping back down to 1.1980. Any lower on Tuesday would target would target 1.1930 and potentially a new downleg.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week’s attack on the 1318.50 pullback objective had never closed above the 1334.00 buy signal. A retest of last week’s low more thoroughly tested 1318.50, and then extended deeper to test 1308.50. Closing back above 1313.00 would suggest the decline is ending, but reversing up would require closing back above 1318.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Delaying a pullback to 17.70 last week has resulted in a deeper drop this week to 17.11. An immediate reversal up by closing back above 17.30 would be credible in this pattern, while not attempting to recover until after Tuesday’s close would likely be only temporary.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite slowing the descent as prior lows were tested into the weekend, last week’s reversal seemingly resumed Monday by probing intraday down to 154-04. Now recovering 154-30 would start to signal at least a corrective bounce underway.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Monday extended the pullback underway since mid-day Thursday. The morning’s low filled the gap back to last Wednesday’s 49.25 open. Its reaction up threatened to close positive, which would form a bullish Pivot Reversal setup.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s pullback to 3.02 had no bullish excuse Monday to further delay resuming last week’s rally. The pattern would not benefit from any more backing-and-filling. Monday’s gap up above last week’s 3.10 high was a little aggressive, but trended higher intraday anyway.
Post-open Review… Hovering.
Held up through one bias environment, holding up into another.
The open’s surge up to 2506.00 reacted down less than 3 points this morning. And that was recovered almost entirely into the bias environment lapsing. The bullish WedEX is no longer influential.
Attacking this morning’s 2507.00 bias-up target to within 4 ticks all but fulfills it. Regardless, that signal is no longer influential, either.
Reacting again into the noon hour’s 2502.00 low has maintained positive territory throughout. This afternoon’s bias-up signal didn’t trigger, but an opportunity to reverse the trend down wasn’t exploited. So, a fresh session high has become likelier. Similarly, retesting this morning’s high would have greater potential to extend higher.
All of which relies on actually probing a fresh session high. Meanwhile, back under 2500.75 would instead start signaling momentum reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 19, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three reports are due simultaneously before Tuesday’s open. But none is high-profile, or has any track record for influencing price action. Still, any noticeable price reaction would likely be duplicated on the subsequent report.
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET