S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down Thursday and testing 1.1845 fulfilled minimum consequences for Wednesday’s failure to rally. But Friday’s gap up and intraday rally were premature for launching a durable recovery. Only a retest of the prior week’s 1.2040 gap is likely before turning back down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing and retesting the 1334.00 buy signal after Thursday’s close and overnight was retraced into Friday’s open to range flat-to-lower into the weekend.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Another test of 17.70 Friday helps a close above 17.90 to at least retest the week’s high, if not also resume the rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-higher ranging held the week’s downtrend. But reversing ti — even if only for the purpose of completing a bearish Head & Shoulders topping pattern at 156-26 — must still recover 155-20.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow, flat-to-lower ranging suggests that the rally will extend, despite Thursday having fulfilled the prior week’s confirmed breakout.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s test had filled a two-week old gap and held prior highs, so Friday’s pullback was not unusual. It held the 3.02 pullback limit to maintain potential for resuming the rally. Any lower close would have undermined the upside momentum, and under 2.95 would have all but ended the bottoming pattern.
Mid-day Update… Double-no, vs. one up.
How passive can passively bias be?
This morning’s no-bias environment probed fresh highs up to 2496.75 high. Testing this morning’s 2496.00 bias-up signal defined the window’s upper-end. Price action since then has been contained within a narrow 2-point range down to 2494.25. Now the afternoon’s no-bias has triggered.
Friday afternoon’s are more notorious for no action than for suddenly trending when there hasn’t been any. Absent another missile threat, the session’s only remaining potential influence is the passively bullish WedEX. Its only qualification is to recover any dips, and not necessarily to trend up.
Meanwhile, the no-bias environment should be contained within its 2492.25 and 2497.50 bias signals. Until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30, or that comes within view 10-15 minutes earlier, which would be free to trend either way.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Sep 18, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Housing Market Index isn’t often influential to price action. But it may gain higher-profile as the hurrican season’s effects begin being assessed. And HMI may be the among the last to establish a baseline.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2499.75 | 2497.50 |
| …would target | 2505.75 | 2503.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2484.50 | 2492.25 |
| …would target | 2488.75 | 2486.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Errands?
Almost a “dry cleaners morning.”
The pre-open attack on 2489.00 nearly tested it as support, and nearly tested it post-open. Both were avoided, and so was an increased likelihood for trending down.
Surging into and out of the open touched 2439.50. Reacting down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility touched 2491.50. A second opportunity to collapse was avoided.
This is a no-bias environment. And having avoided a touch of either of the 2488.75 and 2496.00 bias signal, no offsetting test of the other bias signal is in-play. But testing a bias signal should define that end of the window’s range. Until the bias environment begins lapsing.