S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2755.50 | 2750.75 |
| …would target | 2762.75 | 2758.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2746.25 | 2741.50 |
| …would target | 2739.25 | 2735.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Gapping down ahead of 2 days illiquidity can get ahead of itself, which seems to have been the case Friday. The first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level to signal a Dry Cleaners morning. So, trending was limited to retracing the morning’s high back down to the morning’s low, and then to surging through the close to fresh session highs at 2752.00. Friday’s 2732.00 gap down under all prior lows will want to be retested from above, which hasn’t yet been done since probing back into a prior session’s range. That would be vulnerable to extending under Friday’s test of 2727.25 down to 2720.50 — possibly compensating for their delay by tumbling more aggressively or probing more deeply Monday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s collapse to sharply lower lows from a multi-session range was nevertheless a breakout. But Friday bounced instead of confirming with a second consecutive lower close. This isn’t a buy signal, but holding an intraday test of the gap back down to Thursday’s 1.1195 close — which is likely to be retested — could help to form a bottom.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already rallying overnight to touch the 1295.75 buy signal extended through it at Friday’s open up to 1301.50 to signal a rally leg underway. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up to the adjusted 15.27 buy signal extended higher intraday to attack the previous 15.40 signal. A second consecutive higher close on Monday would confirm.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength reacted favorably on the news, and was positioned to produce the confirmed breakout’s minimum third higher close — which would become vulnerable to reversing back down to retest last Sunday night’s lows.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s pre-open retest of the 57.00 buy signal had avoided triggering again. Overnight action drifted lower to retest uptrending support that had absorbed the prior buy signal test’s reaction. This test wasn’t absorbed as Friday’s 55.10 open gapped down well under it to three-week old “lower prior highs.” Bouncing intraday held prior lows as support, but ran into resistance that can’t is likelier to produce a retest of Friday’s gap down than to recover.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating within the past week’s range all but requires at least a probe of fresh highs, although first dipping would be more capable of converting a probe of fresh highs into a new rally leg.
Mid-day Update… Sticking the lows.
Choppy morning stuck around the open, but that window is done.
If only 3 of the first hour’s 15-minute checkpoints had overlapped the same relevant level, then we would still have suspected a Dry Cleaners morning. There were 4-5 overlaps today at 2732.00, to which every leg and trending attempt has returned.
That was the morning bias environment. This is the afternoon.
Trending down since the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 has returned to within 1 tick of the morning’s next lower objective at 2727.25. The leg’s timing held a test of this afternoon’s 2729.00 bias-down target as support. This is a bias-down environment, but its target was met instead of renewing the bias-down signal.
Back under 2727.25 would nevertheless put into play the next lower objective at 2720.50. Meanwhile, the bias-down environment has room to fluctuate as noise back up to its 2735.50 bias-down signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 11, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Retail Sales hasn’t been particularly influential for quite awhile, especially not without a surprise. It was surprising last month in its weakness, which influenced price action, so it will inhibit price action as the week starts.
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET