S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 5, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two Fed speakers start the holiday-shortened week. Only one is intraday, and he has no track record for influencing price action. The only high-profile econ report has no track record of price influence, either, but that exclusivity could enhance a reaction in case of a surprise.
Lael Brainard Speaks
7:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:10 PM ET
Gallup US ECI
2:00 PM ET
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2479.25 | 2478.50 |
| …would target | 2484.25 | 2483.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2469.75 | 2469.00 |
| …would target | 2464.75 | 2464.00 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The last calculable corrective bounce limit was tested Friday. Pre-open, post-open, noon hour and late-afternoon. So many opportunities to extend higher, and none were exploited. No opportunities to trend back down were exploited either. But the close did dip back under 2477.00, so no higher objective is in-play.
In fact, a last-minute dip extended sharply down to 2474.00. And it had originated before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close, making it valid. No upside traction gained, and no “unfinished business above,” with this week’s rally on the cusp of exceeding correction extremes.
Monday’s holiday is rarely accompanied by significant price action. I’ll still be available to comment on the chart if a situation were to develop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
SATURDAY REVIEW IS NOT HELD DURING HOLIDAY WEEKENDS. MARKET WRAP WAS EXTENDED TO REVIEW THE BIGGER PICTURE. CHARTROM WILL RE-OPEN NORMALLY WITH SUNDAY NIGHT’S GLOBEX SESSION… ENJOY THE HOLIDAY!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s spike up to 1.1989 on the Employment Situation report fulfilled the 61.8% retracement of the drop from Tuesday’s high to Thursday morning’s low. It was retraced entirely and then reversed down much closer to Thursday’s low, near the 1.1854 pullback limit that keeps the door open to rallying out of the weekend.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The favorable reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report quickly probed above Tuesday night’s 1332.00 high whose near-term retest had been signaled Thursday. Its reaction down to 1321.00 held as support, avoiding a close under 1318.50 that would signal momentum reversing down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s open spiked up to pierce Tuesday night’s 17.75 high. Its reaction down was recovered and extended slightly to suggest the 17.90 target remains in-play.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slightly lower lows fulfilled the 155-04 pullback objective down to 154-30. Holding 155-04 through the close allows a near0term retest of Tuesday night’s 156-28 high.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s recovery from having attacked the 45.50 target overnight was not extended Friday, which undermines the recovery attempt’s sponsorship. But its initial dip did hold. Closing under 46.50 is still necessary to confirm the decline’s momentum remains intact.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-lower overnight resolved soon after Friday’s open in a surge through Thursday’s 3.04 high to fresh highs attacking 3.10. The second consecutive higher close confirms a breakout, suggesting the bottoming pattern we’ve been monitoring is now resolving.
Mid-day Update… In the sweet spot.
Attacking July’s pivotal high.
This morning’s 2477.25 bias-up target held its tests through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. Prematurely probing 1 point above it reacted back down to 2474.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. And then it recovered.
Fresh highs coming out of the noon hour have attacked 2480.00 to within 1 tick. That’s essentially July’s high, which is the high prior to August’s actual high — the “pivotal high.” And there’s usually no bearish reason to revisit the pivotal high after having probed its interim low. Meaning, August’s actual high would likely be retested, too.
First things, first. An afternoon downleg can’t be discounted. This afternoon’s bias-up did trigger and it does target fresh session highs. But nothing prevents a downdraft. Back under 2476.75 would start to signal the weekend will be greeted in decline. Otherwise, the near-term trend remains up, no matter how shallowly.