S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
A lot of optimism has been expressed ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Almost all the way through the close, but for a late reversal down.
The next higher objective above 2438.00, 2448.00 and 2454.00 was 2469.00. Its early test Thursday coincided with downtrending pivotal resistance, and their influence price down through the morning bias environment to the open’s 2463.50-2464.25 buy signal. Resistance had become support, still in positive territory, as the bias environment began lapsing.
Not breaking any lower would marginalize sellers for the day. Trending back up from 11:30 into noon would confirm. The rally resumed as the afternoon’s no-bias environment began lapsing, extending up to 2474.25. But rather than close above 2469.00 and put into play the next higher objective at 2477.00, a late reversal attacked 2468.00.While rallying to 2477.00 still wouldn’t be enough to disqualify this week’s rally as only temporary, the corrective rally label is getting thin. So, closing above 2469.00 and putting into play 2477.00 would have been only a formality before exceeding the corrective rally limits. Thursday’s close back at 2469.00 keeps the label intact.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s gap down to and through the 1.1945 sell signal could be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close, despite it being unlikely. Thursday’s pre-open probe lower in reaction to negative ECB comments tried making it likelier, which the afternoon’s favorable US Treasury comments retraced back up to unchanged and avoided confirming the sell signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night’s “flash crash” was recovered entirely back above the 1310.50 pullback limit and then reversed up through an adjusted 1317.00 buy signal. The 1319.50 pullback limit was recovered, too, essentially targeting a retest of Tuesday night’s 1332.00 high.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Thursday retraced 61.8% of Tuesday’s intraday reversal from its 17.69 opening gap, a gap that still needs to be filled as it was above all prior highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow sideways ranging Thursday continued waiting out the market’s stability, barely reacting down to the lack of demand for a “flight-to-safety.” .
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight came within a dime of the 45.50 target but reacted up sharply to 47.35 Thursday morning. Back under 46.40 through Friday’s close may be the only way to resume the decline.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA was not greeted from a position of strength, but the pre-announcement dip to 2.91 was reversed back up sharply through 2.98 to fresh highs at 3.05. This suggests the bottom is complete, awaiting confirmation from a second consecutive higher close on Friday.
Mid-day Update… Safe for another day?
Opportunity to reverse down fails.
The gap up and its extension to 2469.50 had fulfilled the next higher 2469.00 objective. It also intersected with downtrending pivotal resistance off of July’s high. And it reacted down sharply — first, back to the open’s 2464.25 buy signal, and then to 2463.25.
That second, deeper dip was a second bite at a 2465.50 sell signal. It probed under the first test’s 2464.25 low. And it was recovered, entirely, back up through the noon hour to touch the morning’s 2469.50 high.
Sellers should be marginalized for the day, or at least until the final hour. Its proof would be in the rally should meanwhile extending higher. If buyers can’t exploit the opportunity, then the final hour would be that much more vulnerable to reversing down.
Already the afternoon’s no-bias signal triggered. Probing above its 2468.50 bias-up signal after 2:30 would go a long way to resuming the upside momentum. Otherwise, just hovering at the highs or briefly probing fresh highs would be vulnerable to collapsing into the close.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 1, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Employment Situation is usually released in a vacuum, with barely one other report nearby, let alone high-profile or influential. This Friday’s report is unusual probably due to Monday’s holiday. That’s likely to cause greater turmoil… and opportunity. But not necessarily after the noon hour, when those traders that even showed up are leaving early.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2469.25 | 2468.50 |
| …would target | 2474.25 | 2473.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2462.75 | 2462.00 |
| …would target | 2457.50 | 2456.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.