S&P

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s opening drop probed under prior lows at 2419.50. Under all prior lows, including the prior Thursday night’s 2430.50 overnight low. And stayed there, until the bias environment began lapsing.This created an anchor that helped doom to failure a rally into the noon hour’s 2439.50 high. The WedEX’s bearish influence helped, too. Regardless, the afternoon slid back down into the morning’s range to test 2424.00 into the close. The morning’s anchor was probed, but not broken.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped up a couple of points and extended several more to 2431.50. Dipping back under 2428.25 signaled momentum reversing down, and soon it was all retraced to probe under 2424.00 again. And again, and again. The last probe slid into and out of Europe’s opens, attacking Friday morning’s 2419.50 low to within 1 tick. Its reaction got steep and touched last night’s 2428.25 sell signal. That has been consolidating back down to Friday’s 2424.50 cash session close as support.

If, then…
Retracing all of Friday morning’s anchor during Friday’s session could have held to establish a durable bottom. The delay reflects optimism, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Stopping optimistically short of touching Friday’s low overnight, and already surging, also prevents a durable bottom from forming. But it does help to refuel sellers. Regardless of whether the opening print is a gap up from Friday’s close, the bearish WedEX influence should help to push price lower through the morning. The WedEX’s lapsing influence doesn’t prevent the afternoon from trending down, too. Only having ranged overnight doesn’t prevent post-open action from trending down sharply. And only recovering 2434.00 through a relevant window would start to suggest further downside can be delayed.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2434.00 would be likely to  trigger the 2430.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2423.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2421.25 bias-down signal

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour awfully you’ve had an opportunity if you didn’t attend the Saturday review to actually watch the Saturday review recording the first oh and 20-25 minutes is often enough to get the gist of what the markets are trying to say what its challenges are and what its intent is then also what the different strategies are for Sunday night Monday last night was interesting because remember and it is the big focal point is that the big focal point of the I’m going to climb this time trying to actually reverse the trend down that Friday morning actually broke under all prior lives not just continued trending down but broke under the prior Thursday’s Lowe’s which is been the lows for the brake lower for the first leg down spent that way which by the way that’s not that big a deal that can cut either way that can be absorbed and reverse backup or extend down or but timing is what I told us will if the open were greeted already in Decline selling off and not waiting until the last 60 90 minutes before the open to start doing so or resume doing so but just bottom line is the overnight dip stopping short of launching new Lowe’s the reaction up that’s back into positive territory none of that in fact all the way back up to the cell signal at 24 2825 that I identified initially overnight none of that is necessarily bullish it’s the Post open Action that will be bullish or bearish and various wed x Wednesday expression influence that was confirmed on Friday afternoon suggests that whatever the open gapping up flat down Post open Action through the morning will trim down and the overnight slope however shall we might consider that doesn’t prevent a steeper slope in the morning so what might change our mind on that and that is a couple things well at 10:15 of course the bias up signal 2430 if it triggers even then 2430 is bias up signal won’t prevent or won’t be sufficient on its own it’ll be helpful but it won’t be sufficient on its own to prevent turning down temporarily for the morning that’s unusual but it happens really through the open it be open if pre-open action word to extend if pre-open action were to get the open and then the opening 15 minutes through 2434 2434 then we would start to suspect sellers aren’t going to take control this morning or be assured of this morning that wouldn’t prevent them being assertive in the afternoon and by the way being assertive in the morning wouldn’t prevent them still being assertive in the afternoon but if the open can recover 2434 or if it 1015 the bias up signal 2430 where the trigger those would suggest or start to suggest this morning and bear is wed x might not be an issue alright let’s look at other markets any questions that post it to the trim or that same day so its not that its I can’t be retested it’s just not an attraction there are higher Prairie lose up around 1300 if close about 1300 we can really 1301 and we can start to our 1302 and we can start to suspect that perhaps this leg is extending but otherwise it’s at risk of topping Long Pond doing well with or at least firm with vs under pressure crude oil which had extended down up at cell signal 4825 came back to test its cell signal clothing back about 4875 would suggest the downside is done or at least in the near-term that’s some big are corrective bounces underway like a probe of prioritize about 50-50 10 otherwise signaling down and there’s.