S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The entire bearish scenario played-out Wednesday, to a point. From the first intraday test of 2471.00-2473.50 and holding it, to reversing down into the afternoon, structure and calculation observed the topping template.
But rather develop organically. the reversal down was triggered by headlines. That knee-jerk reaction crowd created an artificial response. It was very productive, but not necessarily strong-handed sponsorship. Dropping down to 2462.50 when the bias environment lapsing came within view did not attract reinforcements when the window’s lapsing actually began.
That’s a bullish setup, and entirely credible in context of the news reaction that crowded out sellers. But the last downleg was only retraced 61.8%, and not actually reversed. So, if sellers don’t retake control overnight, then Wednesday’s highs will be either attacked or retested.
Meanwhile, the WedEX (Wednesday Expiration) signal triggered, passively bearish. I describe why in the Wrap video. Also described there is why the signal can become actively bullish by proxy of gapping up to Wednesday’s highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Choppy overnight action amid ECB “trial balloons” triggered a gap down Wednesday that tested Tuesday’s low. Bouncing before the FOMC Minutes filled the open’s gap, and then extended through it back to 1.1800 resistance. Not rejecting the late bounce early Thursday could extend it to fresh highs above 1.1945.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip back into the 1271.00-1281.00 range fluctuated narrowly Wednesday, until the Trump headlines triggered a surge through 1281.00. If valid for targeting a test of the highs’ Island, then Thursday must maintain Wednesday’s post-close FOMC reaction through 1285.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite not recovering Tuesday’s test of the 16.60 pullback limit to close back above 16.70, Wednesday morning rallied through it as if the bottom is already in, testing 17.00.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight back down to Tuesday’s low stopped short of touching it, let alone piercing it down to 153-18. The morning’s had already recovered to Tuesday’s test of 154-10 before the Trump headlines triggered a surge up to 154-30 ahead of the FOMC Minutes release. Any higher close would signal a new rally leg underway.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having firmed in reaction to Tuesday’s post-close API, knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday morning’s EIA pierced a fresh high up to 48.00. It snapped back down to and through Tuesday’s ~47.00 lows, potentially resuming the 48.25 sell signal.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce from testing 2.92 wasn’t exploited overnight, as Wednesday opened under 2.91 and targeting 2.81-2.82.
Mid-day Update… All done?
Upside targets met, and held. And reversed.
The only template still working at the open was an intraday retest of 2471.00-2473.50, and its vulnerability to reversing into a new downleg. Even the 2468.50 bias-up signal joined in, targeting 2474.00.
2474.00 was met soon after noon. I reiterated in the chaRTroom my warning from this morning, 
that the corrective bounce from last week’s low may have completed. Satisfying buying pressure while 1-minute RSI diverged negatively didn’t help. But new sponsorship would be especially difficult to attract with FOMC Minutes just ahead.
Price had backed off already before (Trump) headlines triggered a drop. It extended down in time to test this afternoon’s 2467.50 bias-down signal. The signal held through 1:20 to avoid triggering.
Then 2467.50 was probed by nearly 2 points but was still overlapped at 1:30. Any lower would have invalidated the no-bias that had triggered at 1:20. Could there be a reaction up on FOMC? Perhaps. But probably no more than a correction, because ending its inhibiting role will be replaced by a new one as the headlines play out.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Aug 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday morning’s Philly Fed is the only regional survey with a reliable track record for influencing price action. Any reaction to it would likely be duplicated by later reports, if not also in reaction to either of the afternoon’s two Fed speakers.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:45 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2476.00 | 2474.75 |
| …would target | 2484.50 | 2480.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2468.75 | 2467.50 |
| …would target | 2463.25 | 2462.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.