S&P
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2459.50 | 2467.25 |
| …would target | 2474.50 | 2472.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2461.00 | 2459.00 |
| …would target | 2455.25 | 2453.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s relentless, single-minded trending had paused at 2455.50 several hours before Monday’s open. It resumed immediately, and peaked at 2466.50 during the morning’s bias environment. Ranging narrowly back down to 2463.00 finally probed down a couple of points while the bias environment was lapsing. But only momentarily, and eventually recovered back to the range’s upper-end.
Ultimately, a last-minute attack on the morning’s 2466.50 high was reversed by a last-second probe under 2463.00. The next higher objective at 2471.00-2473.50 was not put into play. That’s not necessarily bearish. The late probe down to 2461.00 never extended to close under 2459.00, so Thursday’s trend change signal is in jeopardy. It would be saved either by Tuesday’s open breaking back under 2459.00, or by closing under Tuesday under Monday’s 2454.00 low.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s break back above 1.1720 resistance was suspicious because it originated from an extended test of “lower prior highs.” Monday’s open gapped down to 1.1720 and didn’t recover, suggesting that momentum remains pointed down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s drop to the 1285.00 pullback limit held for Monday morning, but only to hold 1290.00 and not yet to bounce back up to Friday’s close. Potential to 1305.00 otherwise remains intact.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s dip attacked the 16.90 low of last week’s test of the 17.05 pullback limit. Monday’s open began recovering and the morning extended back into positive territory, marginalizing sellers for another day.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was probably motivated by a flight-from-quality during the stock rally. Gapping down to the 154-30 pullback limit held, and despite the rally persisting throughout the morning, the gap back up to Friday’s close was nearly filled above 155-10. .
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s test of the 48.25 sell signal had held, but didn’t recover the two-week long Triangle’s lower-end. Monday morning improved back up to the Triangle’s apex at 49.15. That corrected the first drop, and resolved down into Monday afternoon probing fresh lows under 47.74. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm the pattern has rolled over.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Room down to 2.91-2.92 was tested through Monday morning’s steep opening slide. Firming through the noon hour avoided closing lower, which would still target 2.81-2.82.
Mid-day Update… Pausing for effect.
Narrowly sideways into and out of the noon hour.
The open’s rally made it to 2466.50. The bias environment exit needed to hold 2463.00 to maintain potential for extending up to 2471.00-2473.50. It was attacked to within 2 ticks, and the rally never resumed.
Neither has it been rejected. Not, yet.
That’s not decisive enough to confirm higher targets in-play. Or, that Thursday’s trend change won’t attract the close back under 2459.00. At least a couple of attempts to trigger a new rally leg have failed. Meanwhile, exiting the afternoon bias environment under 2463.00 would be credible for reversing momentum down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 15, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s pre-open Retail Sales isn’t often influential to price action, but has had a higher profile for its input into Fed decisions. Any obvious reaction to it is likely to be duplicated by the morning’s later reports.
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET