S&P
Post-open Review… No-bias, no bias-up.
Open’s dip ends on time, but bullish WedEX quite delayed.
The bullish WedEX influence remains intact so long as selling is essentially contained to the opening 15 minutes of volatility. The opening 15 minutes of volatility contained nothing but selling.
Dropping nearly 5 points from 2469.50 narrowly avoided touching the 2464.50 bias-down signal. It’s being touched now, but not in time for it to require an offsetting test of the 2472.00 bias-up signal. The 2464.50 bias-down signal also narrowly avoided being broken at 10:30 to invalidate the 10:15 signal.
Breaking 2464.50 this morning would be no-bias trending that requires a recovery, but it the bullish WedEX would be invalidated all the same. Meanwhile, this is the range’s lower-end. Recovering to 2472.00 isn’t required, but there’s that much room And at least 2469.50 should be recovered to comply with the bullish WedEX.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Starting on its back foot.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday morning’s opening dip was a test and retest of Thursday’s 2465.50 low. The dip was also a test of the morning’s 2463.50 bias-down target. Both held, and were recovered through the noon hour to 2470.00. Reacting down 4 points tried breaking Thursday’s low again. But Friday afternoon wasn’t going to accomplish something the morning had tried already and failed to do. Recovering through the last half-hour maintained a bullish WedEX influence.
Overnight action’s new info…
The briefest of blips-up at Sunday night’s open had soon reversed down, once again testing Thursday’s 2465.50 low. That was extended to attack 2363.50. Firming 4 points was reversed at Europe’s opens to retest 2363.50. But only temporarily, as the 2467.50 interim high is being recovered now.
If, then…
Friday afternoon wasn’t going to accomplish something that the morning had tried already and failed to do. Another attempt Monday morning shouldn’t have much luck, either. If the market is ready to break under 2465.50, then the open should maintain a gap under it, and extend down. Otherwise, holding its support through the open — or any support — would help to launch the morning’s bullish WedEX influence.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2466.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2464.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2462.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s morning market tour and we have one big influence one other influence that are between them I think not totally on disconnected from each other but between them I think going to dictate this morning of course the big influence and I say big influence meaning and top billing but it’s not the most influential it’s a very sporadic thing once a month the Wednesday expiration indicator wed x when X is bullish this time around it had a very very minor influence on Friday afternoon if we’re not yet assured of calling that and influence but at least coincidentally from the bias environments entry until the clothes price was biased up by the narrowest of definitions not trending up necessarily but biased up as in at least pull backs are recovered in this one was and if by if the wed x is fulfilled in this case bullish wed x is fulfilled even by the narrowest of definitions its influence on Monday morning should be aggressive not just absorbing a pull back but actually trending up in trending up obviously which brings us to the second influence and II influence is actually a more common one it’s the same influence in fact that we saw Friday morning that basically told us back here when we updated on Friday afternoon even here we were expecting or at least keeping the door wide open to the bullish when X is influence because sellers were doing something that they weren’t likely to get done and that was to break under level on a Friday afternoon that had been tested on a Friday morning and failed the break and that was just the previous low in this case it happened to be the previous day’s low 6550 tested pretty thoroughly including dip to what was the mornings bias down signal 6350 or Target and so that having held in the morning if they try something Friday morning and don’t get it done the odds are very low very low that’s going to succeed with wet sponsorship is left over Friday afternoon pretty high percentage trade how why is that influential this morning well because they’re trying it again they tried it again last night 6550 they tried it or after into out of Europe’s opens tried it again here 6550 even 6350 now has been touched again that was the relevant level Friday morning then ultimately to find the low some unfinished business below as well but here’s what what’s up in the middle of the Friday afternoon so we don’t have the greatest reliability the influence has nothing to do with the this isn’t Friday afternoon anymore it is new sponsorship so if 6550 this morning’s bias down signal itself 6450 if these levels don’t hold especially 6550 through the open 6450 s by Stalin signal triggers of course the bullish wed x no no bullets goes away and we expect first of all that it that if there is any Bounce It has nothing to do with that but secondly that the bullish wood axe is no longer influential so it’s very important that that 6550 hold its test if it’s even tested Post open and therefore does a as a similar reaction as with Friday afternoon just as aggressive actually as was the last half hours recovery throughout the morning but if it doesn’t and 6550 isn’t holding through the open then probably 6450 s going to break lower that is triggered by us down and we won’t be looking for a bullish wed x and by the way Friday Friday’s test Friday’s relevant test that held in the morning that was or I should say failed to break in the morning and so held its retest in the afternoon it’s going to break today we’re probably going to gap down under at so long as we stay away from gapping down under 6550 probably the bullish wed x prevails otherwise the downside is not limited mean there is 46 we already did test 46 isn’t actually Nursery there is at this point 58 59 5750 it’s not a little bit of downside but we don’t necessarily fall off the edge could silver that’s how much firmer overnight and is holding up but the point is it does have 16 70 and playgold as well as higher targets and play and its former overnight as well but closing in on the 12th 5970 Target Long Bond had resumed the rally on queue after a pause on Wednesday not all of it was maintained Thursday but it wasn’t reversed or reject it meanwhile be upside potential or objective 155 us-6 remains and play despite the overnight Paws again crude oil firmer here but still triggering a cell signal still trying to maintain the cell signal under 44.94 sorry 4515 would confirm at this point momentum has reversed and the objective being to retest the Lowe’s pattern not just lower prioritize at 4345 4355 do have outlined but actually retracement and potentially even a fresh low at this stage as long as the delay has been and finally natural gas which I just didn’t think we’re going to get out of here without feeling this Gap back to Monday’s clothes and potentially the next Gap lower and fact Friday sewing pressure extended even deeper than that so really this would have been an overnight low before before was it last Friday is open that tested 292 became likely to be retested as well and it is being rude tested overnight we can have lower the Buy Signal back to to 9850 that’s not that 292 Camp Road I mean there’s this gap down doesn’t require being filled we just looked at a gap like this in the Aussie only inverted because the Gap was created by gapping up to the upper end of the same range and closing within it or around that ranges extreme remember the Odyssey was the inverse of that the gap down was created by gapping still within the range and closing within the range so that Gap doesn’t have to be filled before extending down and so again and natural gas doesn’t have to fill this Gap didn’t have to fill this gap before extending up will now we returned to its orbit after being productive so now there is potential to fill that Gap this test of 292 isn’t already recovering back above 298 fairly short order preferably today okay any questions let me know and I will see you before the open good luck today .
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2474.50 | 2472.00 |
| …would target | 2481.00 | 2478.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2467.00 | 2464.50 |
| …would target | 2460.75 | 2458.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s high point was its recovery from the morning’s test of the 2463.50 bias-down target. That was 2 ticks short of the afternoon’s 2470.50 bias-up signal, and it printed at the 1:20 bias timing window. That’s when the bullish WedEX influence began, and price immediately began dipping.
Testing and attacking Thursday’s 2465.50 didn’t break lower — Friday afternoon wasn’t going to accomplish something that Friday morning had tried and failed. Its reaction spent the last half-hour rallying back to the afternoon’s 2470.00 high, piercing it by an errant tick at the cash session close. Ultimately, the bullish WedEX influence remained intact, so an aggressively bullish influence Monday morning remained likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US FOR THE SATURDAY REVIEW AT 9:30 AM ET. ITS LINK WILL BE EMAILED EARLY IN THE MORNING.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming overnight extended higher Friday to a new high, which suggests there will be follow-through Monday morning to 1.1730-1.1750 before a durable reversal down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing slightly higher overnight was enough to gap up at Friday’s open. The first breakout from an outside day in this setup is likely to extend, so 1259.70 is now in-play.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday above the upper-objective’s 16.35 high suggests the next leg is underway and targeting 16.70.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s late dip had not reversed the intraday rally, keeping upside momentum alive. Rallying overnight gapped up to Thursday’s high and extended higher through the morning, to within a quarter-point of this leg’s 155-06 target.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ongoing suspicions about the recovery above 46.25 and 47.25 were already being confirmed by Thursday’s close back under the latter. Friday morning’s extension slid under the former. Support at 45.15 should be tested next, and its break would allow the low’s consolidation to tested for a more credible bottom to form.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The potential if not likelihood for filling gaps down to at least 3.02 and possible 2.98 began to be fulfilled overnight. The lower gap was filled by extending down deeper Friday morning. Back above 3.05 would signal that the bottom had fully formed a durable rally leg was underway.