S&P
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2449.25 | 2447.25 |
| …would target | 2454.00 | 2452.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2441.50 | 2439.75 |
| …would target | 2436.75 | 2434.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s open didn’t gap up above 2442.00, despite having probed fresh highs overnight up to 2446.50. That didn’t prevent the morning from extending higher, but it made it difficult since Wednesday’s buyers had gained no traction. Anyway, a brief probe above Wednesday’s highs up to 2446.00 was reversed down sharply to 2439.00.
Retesting the overnight high intraday didn’t equate to resuming the rally, either. Or later piercing fresh highs.Not when every such probe fails to hold through the relevant timing window. Sound familiar? That behavior at lows is what led to this week’s rally.
2439.00 is an odd level to make a low. Perhaps that’s why its reaction was limited to retracing the overnight high, and holding it. There’s no requirement to retest 2439.00, but I’ll expect it if Friday’s open is not extending higher. Not only 2439.00, but probably 2435.50 if not also lower.
Extending higher is likely to begin by almost literally exploding higher. Whether or not gapping up, the two-day shallowly uptrending channel has been restraining optimism. And it’s in proximity to prior highs at 2451.50 and unfinished business above that at 2454.00. A new high close on a Friday would be bullish longer-term. Not holding an intraday probe of new highs would be bearish.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s drop from 1.1510-1.1525 resistance down to 1.1450 support tried probing a little lower overnight.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning’s overlapping of 1219.00 by only $3 still needs confirmation to put into play a retest of last week’s 1204.00 low, probably to include a test of 1199.00.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping Thursday attacked the 15.55-15.60 pullback below which fresh lows would be put into play.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Briefly probing above 153-02 overnight was retraced before Thursday’s open. Extending down to test 152-00 “lower prior highs” now allows a more durable recovery leg to begin, initially targeting 154-04.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s last intraday swing had neutralized the attraction back to its opening gap up at 46.00. But Thursday didn’t trend back down, and instead continued testing 46.00. Resolving down at all should begin resolving down by Friday’s open.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from an attack on 2.95 “lower prior highs” was recovered to 3.02 before reversing back down toward intraday lows. Filling the recent gap back down to 2.92 would be optimal for correcting the breakout so that it may resume.
Mid-day Update… Backing-and-filling not necessarily done.
Sitting at session highs. Still.
The post-open bounce got to only 2445.00 as duplicating yesterday’s reaction to Yellen’s testimony. Overnight action had peaked 6 ticks higher at 2446.50. But without gapping up, morning strength would be vulnerable to retracement.
And it was retraced, even reversed momentarily. The 2442.00 bias-up signal had triggered, but then it was invalidated down to 2439.00 through 10:30.
The reversal didn’t extend down, and lasted only long enough to form a Symmetrical Triangle. Its break higher peaked at 2445.00 — only as productive as the open. Fresh highs during the noon hour touched 2446.50 — only as productive as the overnight rally. And within 3 ticks of this morning’s bias-up target, anyway.
Buyers have accomplished nothing, as dictated by the template of not gapping up from yesterday’s pattern. The rally could resume after the bias environment lapses. Meanwhile, a dip is testing 2443.50, where a valid break would renew potential down to 2437.50 and lower.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed policy is most sensitive to its consumer impact. Friday has three high-profile reports providing that snapshot, with two being reliable for influencing price action.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Robert Kaplan Speaks
9:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET