S&P
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2423.00 | 2420.50 |
| …would target | 2428.25 | 2426.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2413.25 | 2413.00 |
| …would target | 2409.75 | 2407.25 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Getting it over with.
Open’s slide starts satisfying a lot of sellers.
The overnight drop to 2416.00 had formed a Symmetrical Triangle with temporary bounce potential up to 2421.25-2421.50. A pre-open bounce did test it by 2 ticks, and then by a third tick post-open.
Then price collapsed for a half-hour.
Recovering 2421.50 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have been likely also to recover the 2419.00 bias-down target through the bias timing window. But 2421.50 held its test through 9:45, and 2419.00 broke lower through 10:15. The bias-down signal was renewed, next targeting 2411.00.
And 2411.00 was tested at the collapse’s low, pierced by 3 errant ticks while both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs became oversold.
That’s the predictable, and potentially the morning’s low. Bounce potential up to 2417.25 would retrace the open’s Running Correction to its upper-quadrant. Any higher would target fresh post-open highs at 2423.50.
Potential to fresh lows at 2399.00 and possibly 2393.00 depend largely on resuming the decline today. Meanwhile, 2311.00 would suffice as the 2-1/2 week old pullback’s low — which would be more reliable if the low’s oversold RSIs were first retested. Otherwise, any lower would suggest the lower objectives are in-play.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Getting on with it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday morning’s rejection of Tuesday night’s rally quickly fell more than 10 points from 2429.75. The 10:15 bias timing window exit was probing Monday’s 2420.50 close down to 2419.25. The plunge was recovered almost entirely almost as quickly, attacking 2429.75 at the 11:30 bias environment exit. The balance of the session ranged choppily flat-to-higher at 2426.50-2432.25, settling back under the morning’s 2429.75 highs.
Overnight action’s new info…
A blip-up to 2430.50 was soon reversed to probe under Wednesday afternoon’s 2426.50 lows. Price action consolidated there until Europe’s opens triggered another dip, which extended down sharply to fresh lows for the week at 2416.00 before bouncing. That’s a 61.8% retracement of the bounce from Thursday’s 2402.25 low.
If, then…
Wednesday morning’s plunge had stopped optimistically short of touching Monday morning’s 2418.50 lows. Its support was already chipped away, so the last-minute deflection is bearish from a contrarian perspective. Support there wasn’t even obligatory — in fact, this overnight drop sliced through it. Gapping down under prior lows would be vulnerable to extending lower immediately. Any delay would be in order to correct back up to what is now “higher prior lows” at 2420.00. Extending down would next target 2399.00 if not also 2393.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2421.50 would be less likely to break back under the 2419.00 bias-down target through 10:15, which would otherwise renew the bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
[Unavailable today due to a technical matter.]
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2435.50 | 2433.00 |
| …would target | 2441.50 | 2439.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2427.75 | 2425.25 |
| …would target | 2421.50 | 2419.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday night’s rally had attacked Wednesday morning’s 2430.50 bias-up signal. Its post-open rejection included a plunge that filled the gap back down to Monday’s 2420.50 close. Stopping short of Monday morning’s 2418.50 lows probably only delays the eventual break lower, and the domino effect leading to 2399.00 and 2393.00.
Overnight resistance is at 2433.00. But recovering 2435.50 through Thursday’s open would be credible for ending the 2-1/2 week old downtrend, and also for resuming the rally to fresh highs. Fresh highs might be limited to 2454.00, but fresh highs.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.