S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Waiting for sellers.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The holiday-shortened session bowed to different influences than normally, if it bowed to any influences, at all. Renewing Monday morning’s 2435.50 bias-up target produced no follow-through. Consolidating through the bias environment formed a Symmetrical Triangle centered around 2434.00. Breaking lower at noon fell to 2426.50 and then to 2422.00 into the early close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Ranging choppily Monday night greeted Europe’s opens from just under Monday’s 2422.00 close. A quick reaction up extended to 2431.25. Narrow ranging broke lower in time to close unchanged at 2424.00-2425.00. Tuesday night’s action has been choppy, but less so, currently hovering just 1 point above unchanged.
If, then…
The eventual reaction down from Monday’s gap up had narrowly avoided filling the gap back down to Friday’s close around 2420.00. Despite not rallying any higher in all the time since then, the gap remains unfilled. Its attraction is almost “obligatory,” likely at least to be filled. Almost obligatory, and not entirely so, because overnight action can be dismissed if not extended during the opening 15 minutes. So, extending down at all is likely to break lower and retest Friday morning’s 2418.50 lows, which offer little support if any, on the way down to fresh lows. Rallying instead — preferably by gapping up which isn’t indicated, or by recovering Monday’s 2436.50 highs through any relevant timing window — would likely end the two-week decline and rally back up to new highs.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2433.00 would likely trigger the 2430.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesday’s Morning Market or Wednesday July 5th I hope everyone had a pleasurable Independence Day pleasurable safe we’ve got some news that has a track record of influencing price action maybe factors influence that can be traced suspected from the drop if the open is filling the gap or even before the open back down to Friday’s close we’re probably going to be breaking through it breaking through it says really the real test is Friday mornings 24 1850 Liz you can see the obligatory test there that support should be chipped away so if 24 1850 is were tested we probably break it on the way down to Fresh Lowe’s fresh Liz means under last week’s was at least a retest of it but 2399 to 2393 I should say 23923 otherwise turn it down so much is just pull back correct silver extended down even more deeply for some reason the transfer of the levels from July aren’t really taking need to get that done little more indelibly but here’s the July pattern July charts were on sep now but structurally the same pattern all the resistance up here being tested and needing to retest would have been the prior Sun Daze Spike down to its Target equivalent to 1635 set then the requirement to retest it at a minimum and being extended so here’s sep again 1635 Target there was Matt Pryor Sunday night requiring a retest not necessarily intraday just a retest because of its Spike value and also not being tested or Bing retraced to the degrees retraced already is because to fully testing the Target and pay the consequence now for that big detour in doing so is it closer to a bottom or it’s always closer to a bottom line is always closer to about doesn’t mean it’s closer to turn and now we have this is not or at least star crude oil which had its next resistance 4706 basically tested it overnight tested after Tuesday’s close never really extended it remember this is kind of living on borrowed time while our pattern I did Target 4490 and then that was recalculate before it was met two or Justin to 4525 this is just been accessed without triggering a pool bat or without violating a pullback this is just been gravy but if this stage back under 46 would indicate that the rally has ended at least this leg of the rally remember what are objective is that this pattern Beaver tested at the low the foreman or more durable bottom and natural gas just can’t get away from this 295 I knew after Thursday’s need jerk reaction and failed knee jerk reaction to the CIA report we knew we were coming back to test to fill a gap that basically to 295 and this should be here Sunday night came back last night to Type your transcription text here and we’ll autosave your every 15s. Make sure you use our handy shortcuts (Esc, F1, F2, F3, F4, F6) to control the audio playback..
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 5, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes could inhibit price action before it, but is likely to trigger a reaction in the wake of its release.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
2:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2433.25 | 2430.50 |
| …would target | 2438.25 | 2435.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2424.25 | 2421.50 |
| …would target | 2418.25 | 2415.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapped down Monday under its 1.1450 pullback limit to test 1.1400 whose break would signal the trend reversing down. Filling the gap back up to 1.1475 first would make a trend reversal more credible.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting up through the week avoided fulfilling the 1235.00 target that was only attacked during last Sunday’s “fat-finger” plunge. Sliding into the weekend extended down sharply Sunday night to fulfill the target, which was probed Monday morning down to 1220.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Last Sunday’s overnight “fat-finger” plunge had reacted up sharply from testing its 16.35 target, retracing entirely to test the 16.75 prior high up to 16.85 Thursday. But the trend never reversed up, and the weekend was greeted in decline. Sunday night’s plunge extended to retest the prior low, and trended deeper through the morning to attack 16.00.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing lower Sunday night needed to close above 154-02 to suggest the drop’s momentum had lapsed. But Monday morning probed fresh lows down to 152-28. Lower-prior highs from late-May offer potential for launching a bounce back up to 155-04.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having extended Friday above Thursday’s test of the 45.25 target to 46.00, Sunday night also extended higher to test 46.85 Monday morning. And there’s room up to 47.00 before closing back under 46.00 would signal a quick temporary dip targeting 43.40.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up had been retraced to suggest the “lower prior highs” down to 2.95 would be tested so the bottoming pattern could complete. Friday’s dip had stopped 3 cents short before bouncing, but Sunday night gapped down to 2.95 and rallied through Monday’s open. Filling the gap back up to Friday’s 3.05 close reacted back down to attack 2.95.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Exceeding Monday morning’s 2435.50 bias-up target by 1 point through 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal. That’s more of a suggestion than a requirement, especially on a holiday-shortened session during a 5-day working holiday. Its reaction down formed a Symmetrical Triangle that broke sharply lower at noon down to its 2427.50 target.
A big snap back up was denied, despite testing “lower prior highs” down to 2426.50, and despite the drop being a knee-jerk reaction to a headline (re: ECB). RSIs were simultaneously oversold instead of diverging positively. Bouncing to 2431.00 resolved down to 2422.00 through the futures close.
Hold-short wasn’t overwhelmingly compelling, but could be considered with a bounce limit at either 2425.25 or 2427.50. Extending down at all would likely retest Friday morning’s 2418.50 lows, which offer little support if any, on the way down to fresh lows. Recovering Monday’s 2436.50 highs through any relevant timing window could instead end the two-week decline and rally back up to new highs.
HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.