S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2435.25 | 2433.00 |
| …would target | 2440.75 | 2438.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2426.25 | 2424.00 |
| …would target | 2421.00 | 2418.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s pre-open and post-open behavior was more in-line with WedEX than was Friday afternoon.
Especially since it is a passively bearish WedEX. The open’s bearish setup was both passive and active. Probing a prior high — like probing Thursday’s high overnight — and then reversing back under it is passive. Extending the reversing back under the earlier overnight low is actively bearish. This setup is responsible for the post-open 12-point plunge. Bouncing into and through the afternoon wasn’t bearish.
Friday afternoon ultimately ranged flat-to-higher. No bearish influence was obvious. The afternoon’s 2430.00 bias-up signal wasn’t touched until the final cash session bar — the final hour otherwise made no new high. Positive territory was never recovered. So, no bullish influence was obvious, either. There certainly wasn’t a bias-up, or any other inversion. This leaves Monday morning vulnerable to aggressive bearish behavior.
“Unfinished business below” left outstanding at 2418.75 would be a likely objective if the week were to open under pressure. Otherwise, ignoring the bearish WedEX or waiting out its morning influence would clear the way to new highs — if not also to a new high close, which another Friday has avoided despite starting the day in proximity.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’ll send the Saturday Review link in the morning, well before its 9:30 ET start time.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday had produced the required third lower close still outstanding from the prior week’s confirmed breakout. A lot of selling pressure had been expended since Wednesday morning’s surge, so Friday bounced, trying to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close. A durable recovery already is less likely than resolving down to probe fresh lows at 1.1100 and 1.0995.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging Friday morning didn’t reject Thursday’s gap down which was a reaction to the FOMC news. Closing back above 1266.25 would still reverse momentum up, but not already reversing up Monday morning would be likelier to extend the decline.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging narrowly flat-to-lower Friday for a second consecutive session hasn’t altered the potential Island pattern that would have begun forming at Wednesday’s gap down. But further delaying any attempt to reject it past Monday morning would suggest its decline will be extended.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s narrow ranging actually corrected 61.8% of Wednesday’s post-FOMC dip that had followed its pre-FOMC surge. In other words, the dip from Wednesday’s high is now corrected. That surge wasn’t confirmed, so a break back under 155-00 would target a retest of the range’s 153-29 lower-end, and probably also its reversal.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday morning firmed slightly but was contained within the narrow Wednesday-Thursday range of probing the prior Wednesday’s low. Closing above 45.65 would signal momentum reversing up, but the trend meanwhile remains lower.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s surge in reaction to the EIA report was consolidated Friday morning. Back under 3.02 to test 2.97 would help to form a durable bottom.
Mid-day Update… Pausing.
Hovering through the noon hour.
This morning’s late bias-down made it to 2420.25 before bouncing back up through the 2425.25 bias-down signal to 2427.00 by noon,and to 2428.50 during the noon hour.
Neither afternoon bias signal was touched as price dipped to 2425.25. This is a no-bias environment.
The bearish WedEX influence can’t prevent probing above 2428.50, but it should lead to reversing back down before the close. This morning’s 2418.75 bias-down target is now “unfinished business below,” and a likely objective.
Back above 2430.50 would start to suggest a more significant bounce underway — which would undermine the afternoon’s bearish influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 19, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s pre-open Fed speaker may be influential to price action, but too far before the open for that effect to be likely intraday.
William Dudley Speaks
8:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET