S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s open gapped up well above Monday’s 2427.50 highs to 2433.00. A probe up to 2436.00 was retraced during the morning’s bias environment back down to its 2429.25 bias-up signal. It recovered, and each remaining timing window trended up to higher and higher highs.
This pattern would be a “session-long rally” if Monday’s last trending had been down. But Monday’s late action rallied back to session highs. A gap down under Monday afternoon’s 2418.00 lows would have formed a “session-long decline,” and would have begun the process of ending the pullback from Friday morning’s 2443.50 high.
Regardless of the direction, Monday’s range was likely to produce a false breakout. Again, that temporary move down would have helped to form a better base for launching a rally. Instead, rallying first has been sponsored by weak hands, vulnerable to reversing down at any time upon retesting Friday’s high.
Avoiding a reversal down Wednesday morning could extend the rally to 2445.00 if not also to 2553.00. An overnight pullback has room down to 2433.00-2434.00 to maintain the rally’s momentum. Opening any lower could dip back into Monday’s range, where there would be no assurance of not simply extending down to Friday’s lows and lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday didn’t exploit Monday having neutralized an attraction above by filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. Regardless, the pattern is still targeting an eventual third lower close.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing lower overnight to 1260.50 requires closing Tuesday back above 1268.50-1269.50 to maintain the potential for the current decline to be only a limited pullback, and not a new downleg. Closing above 1272.50 would trigger a recovery.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already having closed under 17.09 — actually, having gapped down to it Monday and then extending lower intraday — the decline extended deeper overnight. Closing back above 17.00 would be the minimum requirement to suggesting a bottom is beginning to develop.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing slightly lower overnight struggled to maintain a recovery back above the 153-29 pullback limit whose support has been chipped away for several days. Under 153-16 would target 152-24.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s failed gap up extended into negative territory Tuesday morning, until a surge essentially filled the gap back to Monday’s 46.49 opening gap up. Having neutralized the attraction above, the attraction below at Thursday’s 45.29 gap down may inhibit extending higher.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not already rallying Tuesday morning had made a retest of last week’s lows likely. Tuesday morning’s dive probed fresh lows down to 2.95, which would suffice for completing the low’s retest by closing above 3.02.
Mid-day Update… A telling pause.
Trending up through the noon hour, to resistance.
If this morning’s dip to the 2429.25 bias-up signal were going to break lower, then it needed to avoid recovering the 2433.00 open. But the bias environment was exited back up at 2433.00. 
And if the recovery were valid for ending the post-open pullback, then it would extend higher through the noon hour. Which it did.
The noon hour extended higher as far as possible without putting into play any higher objective. Or any objective. This afternoon’s 2436.75 bias-up signal was probed by 1 point, but it was still being overlapped at both 1:20 and 1:30 to avoid triggering.
The afternoon bias environment is not no-bias, and not bias-up. It is noN-bias. Usually, the noN-bias environment behaves like a no-bias, holding resistance. Unlike the usual no-bias environment, noN-bias tends to cling to the bias signal — and often breaks it when the bias environment begins lapsing.
So, unless a pullback limit were violated and an inflection point were to reverse momentum down, the rally is positioned to resume today. Shallow weakness for now would be helpful, but back under 2432.00 would start signaling another downdraft underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 14, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: CPI is Wednesday’s only morning report having a track record for influencing price action. More so this month, along with Retail Sales, which could influence the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement or its credibility. Price action often becomes subdued while awaiting the FOMC policy statement. Then volatility expands considerably, and often predictably.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2439.25 | 2436.75 |
| …would target | 2444.75 | 2442.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2432.50 | 2430.00 |
| …would target | 2427.00 | 2424.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.