S&P
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2436.25 | 2433.25 |
| …would target | 2441.75 | 2439.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2428.50 | 2425.75 |
| …would target | 2423.00 | 2420.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Rolling up, or back over?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
[This paragraph’s levels are all basis Jun.] Not for lack of trying, but for trying too little. We knew at Tuesday’s close that not gapping up Wednesday above 2434.25-2435.50would likely extend the decline to at least 2424.25. Wednesday’s 3-point gap up from Tuesday’s 2428.75 cash session close extended to test Tuesday morning’s 2434.25 highs. The prior highs held, and the noon hour collapsed to 2424.00. The balance of the session rallied back to the morning’s high, and almost formed a Pivot Reversal except for not maintaining its fresh high.
Overnight action’s new info…
[This paragraph’s levels are all basis Jun.] Globex action initially hugged Thursday’s last-minute reaction down to 2430.50 but never even pierced it. Firming greeted Europe’s opens back up at Thursday’s last-minute 2435.00 high. Fresh highs eventually developed, now probing Tuesday’s late high by 1 point.
If, then…
[At this morning’s open, the front-month rolls forward in ES to Sep to Jun. Going forward, all levels are quoted basis Sep, trading at a 2.00-2.50 discount.] Forming all but the last element of a setup can have the opposite resolution. So, missing Wednesday’s chance at a Pivot Reversal had a chance to resolve today as bearishly as it could have been bullish. Market Wrap addressed why that might not be a problem today — the late reaction down wasn’t too late to be credible, but it was too shallow to prevent resuming the rally overnight. And it seems the rally has, in fact, resumed overnight, targeting “unfinished business above at 2436.00, 2437.75, and at least one more new trend high close. Pre-open ECB headlines must still be navigated, and then ex-FBI director Comey’s Senate committee hearing. Regardless of the catalyst, failing to gap up would put yesterday’s late failure back in control, with potential down to 2419.25.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters, now available basis Sep] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2435.25 would be likely to trigger the 2433.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2431.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome welcome back it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or it is expiration week upcoming one week prior to Thursday morning prior to expiration monthly or quarterly Express rolls right here June Now set overnight will be rolling for updating the and done except for the clothes which didn’t maintain its probe above the Morningside that every single element was done without that final element often makes a set up in this is true of any setups in my work off and makes it set up as sentimental extreme to one and One Direction the opposite direction that it would have been in other words this would have been pretty bullish except for that final element which now makes it pretty Parish that’s not always the case and we had one clue to that that I want her to close to that that I discussed yesterday it made me suspicious about the rejection even though the rejection came into our the reaction down the failure to actually fulfill that setup came and time it was before coming within 3 minutes of the cash and close so it was real price action it wasn’t really slow and by the time we get to the today power throws a wrench in this works I’m trying to recover then yes a slow doesn’t have to be retested but probably will be down to 24 1925 used to be 2421 21 15 days June now 1925 basis coming out momentarily with the.
Morning Bias – JUN
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2436.25 | 2435.75 |
| …would target | 2441.75 | 2441.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2428.50 | 2428.00 |
| …would target | 2423.00 | 2422.50 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Retesting 2426.50 was likely to at least visit 2424.25, which previously had been the room for noise above 2415.00. It was fulfilled by a 5-point plunge during the noon hour from 2429.00. And its test reacted up quickly and aggressively. It also reacted up substantially, almost 10 points to touch the open’s 2433.75 high.
Before this week’s pullback had even begun, during the weekend’s Saturday Review, we discussed the potential down to 2421.50. Its test would have made a more reliable bottom. And still could, but it’s not necessary to resume the rally. No more necessary than was last week’s bottom pullback that stopped short of its 2399.00 potential.
Meanwhile, closing above Wednesday morning’s gap up after probing a fresh trend low intraday would have formed a Pivot Reversal. The setup identifies turning points. All of the setup’s other elements had formed, including actually probing a fresh session high up to 2435.00. But the close was back under he morning’s 2434.50 high. The pattern’s resolution can be as bearish as it could have been bullish.
Wednesday’s late reaction down seemed to suggest as much, retracing a couple of “big, consecutive upbars.” The setup would have triggered a short-squeeze if appearing several minutes earlier. It didn’t, so retracing it isn’t necessarily bearish. Rallying overnight to gap up Thursday can’t be discounted. Otherwise, gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s ~2428.00 low could get 2421.50 done, after all.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday to test the 1.1235 sell signal was recovered to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, and to retest 1.1285 resistance. Two more swings in the range left it intact, and likely to break soon.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap down to Tuesday’s 1293.50 low was recovered to 1296.50 resistance, which then reacted back down to the open’s low. An actual correction down to 1284.50 remains possible, and likely if Thursday’s open has further delayed resuming the rally to probe prior highs above 1300.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight lows filled the gap back down to Friday’s 17.55 close before recovering back into the interim range, all but requiring no further delay in resuming the rally to the 17.90 target.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight eventually dipped back toward Monday’s close without launching a downleg. But further delaying the rally through Thursday would become even likelier to reverse the trend down next.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s shallow dip and shallow recovery from probing under Friday’s low had been exploited by Tuesday’s rally. But that had held “higher prior lows” at the original sell signal. A negative knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday’s EIA report was possible within the bottoming context. But the reaction extended a weak open to more than a $2 drop attacking 45.90, which is $1 under Monday’s low. No bottom has formed.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday to 3.09 resistance reacted back down to Tuesday’s close, still leaving open the gap back down to Monday’s close, which greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.