S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Not so fast.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s drop to 2780.50 had stabilized 7 points higher, but that was still under Tuesday’s close and in negative territory. A post-open surge to 2792.50 essentially erased both, but only momentarily before collapsing to test the next lower objective at 2777.00 thanks in part to China trade headlines. The objectives test and retest were isolated to the bias environment, inhibiting more sponsorship for the day. The balance of the session rallied up to 2796.25, back in positive territory and above the open’s initial high. The cash session close was still overlapping Tuesday’s 2791.50 open and close, part of the problem that had led to Tuesday night’s decline.
Overnight action’s new info…
Post-close action had extended another point up to 2797.25, which the Globex open quickly rejected on the way back down to 2790.00. Hovering there shallowly through midnight began accelerating the pullback to attack 2781.50 into and out of Europe’s opens. RSIs diverged positively to enable a bounce that has been testing and retesting 2788.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday’s recovery had stopped short of levels that would ensure extending higher without delay. But it recovered enough to allow room for a reaction down to be only a temporary pullback, without yet extending the decline to 2754.00. The overnight drop so far is contained entirely withing yesterday’s range, and nothing yet requires probing either end of it. But both bias-down parameters have been attractive, and the 10:15 resolution to their test might be the next signal either way.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2791.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2788.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2784.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2780.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2781.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2798.00 | 2798.00 |
| …would target | 2805.25 | 2805.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2787.75 | 2788.00 |
| …would target | 2781.25 | 2781.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Closing flat Tuesday with the opening print seemed too little reward for having recovered from Monday night’s drop — regardless of the wide intraday range. That’s why Tuesday night’s drop to lower lows wasn’t surprising. Keep that in mind.
Tuesday night’s drop to 2780.50 was recovered enough for a post-open surge to 2792.50. None of which absolved the same weak-handed sponsorship that was likely to resolve down. And it did, collapsing to test the next lower objective at 2777.00 and retesting it by 2 points.
Everything under the morning’s 2784.25 bias-down target was a knee-jerk reaction to China trade headlines, an artificial catalyst likely to be retraced. Its timing was ultimately isolated to the bias environment, inhibiting another timing window from repeating the effort. The intraday recovery eventually reached 2796.25, back in positive territory and above the open’s initial high.
So, was that enough reward for having absorbed the open’s collapse? Not necessarily. The cash session close was still overlapping Tuesday’s 2791.50 open and close. Post-close action extended up to 2797.25, but that’s post-close action. Thursday’s open should already be in rally mode unless another downleg is underway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having just fulfilled its minimum third higher close to satisfy last week’s confirmed breakout, another session of backing-and-filling Wednesday would not necessarily undermine the rally. But the bullish pattern shouldn’t further delay fresh highs Thursday and preferably also into the weekend.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The reaction down from meeting last week’s target extended even deeper Wednesday, filling a gap at 1323.00 and testing “lower prior highs” at 1318.50. A new buy signal can be calculated at 1326.50 that would target 1345.00-1347.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows at 15.65 now allow a close back above 15.80 to trigger a rally leg targeting 16.16. Another lower close to the current pullback would be difficult to launch a near-term recovery.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s probe back above the 146-12 buy signal had closed at its intraday upper-end, leaving no room for delay to extending higher for a bullish resolution. Reacting down instead Wednesday was vulnerable to rejecting the larger recovery attempt, and price extended down sharply to attack 145-18. Almost any lower close Thursday would shift the pattern to distributive and the trend to down.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s post-close reaction to API had spiked up to touch the 56.15 buy signal. Already firming before Wednesday’s open, the morning’s reaction to its EIA report extended the recovery to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 57.25 high close, still having no reason to further delay resuming the rally to new highs.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s gap down dipped to 2.73 filled the gap back to Friday’s close and reversed back into positive territory at 2.80. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.
Mid-day Update… Getting interesting.
Recovery from significant support is almost fully rejected.
The post-open collapse down to 2777.00 held a retest down to 2775.00 while 1-minute RSI diverged positively. 
Their 2782.00 interim high was recovered as price action grinded back up to 2790.75 during the noon hour. Surging out of the noon hour reached 2795.00.
But this afternoon’s 2792.75 bias-up signal was being overlapped at both 1:20 and 1:30 to avoid triggering. This is a noN-bias environment. Not bias-up with a target in-play, and not no-bias resisted by its bias-up signal. There is no restriction against extending higher, and sellers are all but marginalized.
Another downleg could get underway, but it would be difficult. It can’t be overstated how meaningful it is to isolate the open’s test of significant support. And overbought RSIs at the 2795.00 high would inhibit reversing down.
Still, a recovery can’t be signaled until the close, and even another fresh session high would remain vulnerable to being rejected. But maintaining another fresh high through the bias environment lapsing would become extra-vulnerable to a bullish short-squeeze through the close.