S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Start and stop again?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up just above Friday’s 2393.00 prior high was just enough to overcome Friday’s failure to close above Thursday’s 2396.50 prior high. Extending higher immediately, relentlessly and sharply all fulfilled the setup, which tested 2402.25 during the morning’s bias environment. The balance of the session ranged flat-to-lower down to 2397.00. Monday’s new high close was at or overlapping the 2400.00 prior intraday high. It satisfies the “unfinished business above” which had been required since the prior trend high close had printed on a Friday. The close’s overlap gets credit since all prior intraday highs were probed Monday.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday afternoon’s flat-to-lower ranging initially extended, touching 2396.25 before midnight. Firming from there is only now probing attacking 2401.00.
If, then…
No “unfinished business above” means that reversing down immediately could evolve into a durable decline. It’s a vulnerability, and it’s probably coming soon. But probing more fresh highs first is likelier after Monday afternoon’s pullback despite the morning piercing a new high — presumably including 2405.00, if not also 2415.00. Gapping down under 2397.00 to “lower prior highs” might be the only way to avoid another detour first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2403.00 would be likely to trigger the 2401.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2397.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2404.25 | 2401.00 |
| …would target | 2409.50 | 2406.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2395.00 | 2392.75 |
| …would target | 2389.75 | 2387.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s new high close closed at the 2400.00 prior intraday high, after probing above it intraday. Reversing down immediately would not leave “unfinished business above” outstanding. Back under 2397.00 would at least suggest a detour underway.
Reversing down immediately is a vulnerability, but it isn’t likely. At least intraday probing of fresh highs remains likely, presumably including 2405.00, if not also 2415.00.
Only eking out the new high close, and sliding post-close, suggests that pessimism remains alive and well enough. Which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Another new high close isn’t required, but neither is it prohibited.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s trigger of the 1.0920 buy signal was extended higher overnight and through Monday morning, already attacking its minimum objective to fill the gap back up to 1.1010. A second consecutive higher close would also require an eventual third, making the original 1.1025 target’s retest likely, too.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further overnight to the bounce’s highest levels tested the 1228.00-1236.00 range’s upper-end. The balance of the session drifted back down to its lower-end. Closing lower Tuesday would suggest the 1206.00-1211.00 target is in-play.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night extended the rally considerably, probing slilghtly higher Monday morning to test the original 16.75 sell signal that had put into play 15.95 which remains outstanding below 16.40.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight choppiness remains in proximity to trigger the 151-22 inflection point, preferably also recovering 152-00 to help confirm a bigger bounce underway.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sharply higher highs Sunday night probed the rally’s 48.85 target, up to 49.66, ranging Monday around 49.30 resistance. That had been confirmation to the prior rally leg, so recovering it again would be challenging while a gap remains outstanding at the low.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap down from the rally’s 3.42-3.45 target area responded appropriately to the area’s vulnerability. Monday didn’t extend the gap down, but neither was it recovered. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday is needed to confirm fresh lows under 3.11 are in-play.
Mid-day Update… Thin ice.
Sitting at the highs.
This morning’s rally extended up to 2402.25. Coincidentally, that was the first bar both printing a fresh high and not touching the 2401.00 renewed bias-up target. Its extreme sentiment didn’t attract reinforcement, and price retraced 4 points.
1-minute and 3-minute RSIs aren’t simultaneously overbought at the high, so its retest isn’t required. But the pullback is relatively shallow. The rally may have corrected through the passage of time, instead of the more traditional retracement.
A fresh high would have been credible for resuming the rally if preceding a bias-up triggered by 1:20 above 2401.00. But no-bias triggered, so anything above 2401.00 during a no-bias environment would be doomed to failure.
None of which prevents testing 2405.00, anyway. But under 2398.00 would extend the dip.