S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially dipping at Thursday’s open had barely touched the 1.0865 pullback potential before reversing up into positive territory. The dip wasn’t deep, so reversing wasn’t any great feat. It’s more relevant for having neutralize the potential attraction. Still closing above 1.0920 is needed to signal a retest of 1.1025 underway.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another overnight bounce probed Tuesday night’s high,but without reacting down through Thursday morning. This undermines the momentum of Tuesday’s breakdown, and allows for a bigger bounce to retest the upper-end of 1228.00-1236.00, but the gap outstanding to Monday’s close will require being filled.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A bigger bounce Thursday than before Wednesday’s open was not rejected Thursday. The 15.95 target remains outstanding, regardless. But its test can be delayed if not already back in-play Friday morning.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing a fresh low overnight was recovered at least to fluctuate around Tuesday and Wednesday’s closes. The fresh low close keeps intact the ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs, needing to recover 151-02 to even begin signaling momentum reversing up.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Gapping up slightly Thursday eventually extended to fresh highs at 48.22, now capable of extending the rally so long as 47.65 holds as support. Otherwise, backing-and-filling would be likely.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already gapping up ahead of Thursday’s EIA report reacted favorably, probing above Wednesday’s high. Unless rejected immediately Friday, the next higher objective is 3.42-3.45.
Mid-day Update… Close. So, half a cigar?
Noon hour bounce retraces much of the morning’s plunge.
The open’s 13-point plunge from 2392.00 was retraced to 2390.00 coming out of the noon hour. That triggered the 2388.00 bias-up signal. Already recovering 2383.50 and 2386.00 had suggested the downside momentum had lapsed.
But this morning’s 2391.75 bias-down signal must still be recovered through a relevant window to signal momentum reversing up. So, testing the 2394.25 bias-up target could be bullish, unless its test were reversed back under 2391.75 when the bias environment is lapsing.
Currently, the pre-1:20 high is now being probed, which helps greatly to ensure the bias-up target will become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. There is meanwhile room to test 2386.00 as support before suggesting momentum may be reversing down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 12, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any price reaction to either of Friday’s pre-open reports is likely to repeat in reaction to either post-open report. The noon hour’s Fed speaker is a wild card.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*Patrick T. Harker Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2390.50 | 2388.00 |
| …would target | 2396.75 | 2394.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2385.25 | 2382.75 |
| …would target | 2378.25 | 2375.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Flash in the pan?
Overnight drop extends.
A pullback from yesterday’s 2397.00 high had room to test 2391.00 before signaling this week’s consolidation was breaking lower. But a valid recovery would be underway already at the open or very soon after, 
to isolate sellers to the overnight. Opening at 2391.00 firmed to 2392.25 where any higher would have triggered a buy signal. It was only touched.
Under 2388.00 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have made the 2391.75 bias-down signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Pre-open lows had touched 2388.00, and it was still being overlapped at 9:45, so it didn’t offer any extra input.
Regardless, the overnight drop extended sharply.The 2386.75 bias-down target was exceeded on the way down to 2380.75, which was probed down to 2379.00. RSIs finally diverged positively on its retest, launching a bounce now testing 2383.00.
Not extending down to 2375.00 or deeper depends almost entirely upon entering the noon hour above this morning’s 2391.00 bias-down signal. Just recovering 2383.50 would be credible, if the recovery were extended into the noon hour’s exit. Otherwise, just consolidating in the low’s range through another timing window would be likely to resolve down.