S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday was at the very least a surprising day. At the very most, one more surprise is yet to come.
Wednesday’s sellers had gained traction through dropping from 2349.25 to 2331.25, but that didn’t prevent gapping up Thursday. The gap wasn’t above the prior afternoon’s high, but that didn’t prevent trending higher throughout the day. A lot, back to and through Wednesday’s high to test the next higher objective at 2355.00.
Closing above 2355.00 would have put into play 2360.00-2361.00. It was probed up to 2358.25, but that didn’t enable extending higher. Instead, Thursday’s last two hours ranged sideways back down to 2353.25.
2355.00 was still being overlapped throughout those two final hours, neither extended nor rejected. Closing under 2352.00 would have confirmed 2355.00 held as resistance. Opening Friday under 2352.00 would suggest as much. But opening under 2345.00 would confirm that Thursday’s intraday rally had been exaggerated by expiration jockeying. Holding a test of 2360.00-2361.00 would be vulnerable to reversing down, too.
However it might start, reversing down would be more surprising than Thursday’s rally, because it would be much more productive. The bearish WedEX could retrace this week’s lows back down to and through last week’s lows. And lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday morning was too late to confirm Tuesday’s close above the 1.0725 buy signal. Regardless, it was retraced to fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s close. But it does create a three-day pattern whose fourth day is somewhat likely to probe fresh trend highs intraday, which would be very likely to then close negative.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s narrow ranging back at last Thursday’s 1278.00 “lower prior high” consolidated Wednesday’s steep drop under the 1290.70 pullback limit, which is likely to be retested so long as 1274.00 holds as support.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Consolidating for two days under the 18.30 pullback limit broke lower Thursday to 17.90 support by a nickel. An Island-like pattern has been left outstanding at the recent high, which was itself the shallowest possible retest of the 18.55 prior high. Other than the recent sharp selling, actually reversing the trend down is the least likely resolution.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The gap back up to Tuesday’s 155-13 close was created by Wednesday’s gap down and is likely eventually to be filled. Thursday gapped down under Wednesday’s narrow range, and extended to within 1 tick of the 153-24 pullback limit that should launch the high’s retest and fill its gap.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward from May to Jun, which is trading at a 40-cent premium] Satisfying the pullback’s 51.05 target Wednesday down to 50.50 only ranged narrowly sideways Thursday.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday tested 3.21 before dipping back into negative territory at the 3.13 sell signal. Potential for a bigger corrective bounce to 3.27 remains alive, but breaking under 3.13 would still be entirely credible for launching a downleg.
Mid-day Update… Unmade, and broken.
Morning’s consolidation breaks higher. A lot higher.
Extending yesterday morning’s gap up through 2345.00 would have targeted 2352.00 and potentially 2360.00-2362.00. But the gap up stalled and plunged.
Gapping up today was irrelevant. But it triggered bias-up, and the bias environment hovered under its 2345.50 target. That restrained optimism was combined with a Symmetrical Triangle that broke higher into the bias environment lapsing.
2345.50 didn’t slow down the break higher. It has extended to 2354.25. That’s within 3 ticks of this afternoon’s bias-up target. So, not actually touching it isn’t required. But reversing won’t be triggered from above 2349.75. And extending higher would next target 2360.00-2361.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Apr 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s post-open reports are staggered, and at least one is high-profile with some track record for influencing price action.
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
9:30 AM ET
*PMI Composite Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
3:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2352.75 | 2349.25 |
| …would target | 2358.25 | 2355.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2346.75 | 2343.50 |
| …would target | 2341.00 | 2337.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.