S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2362.00 | 2358.50 |
| …would target | 2367.25 | 2364.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2353.75 | 2350.50 |
| …would target | 2348.25 | 2344.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Efforts to invalidate Tuesday morning’s 2349.75 bias-down signal didn’t fail for lack of proximity. The 10:30, 11:30 and noon bars each overlapped the relevant bounce limit. And each limit was successively higher. But overlapping disqualifies the attempt. So, the 2344.75 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below.”
The required test of 2344.75 could be delayed by another rally leg. Last week’s no-bias trending above 2342.25 wasn’t retraced until after having extended higher for several days. That said, extending much higher from current levels would all but ensure probing new highs. Tuesday’s late surge up to 2358.50 came too late to qualify.
Aggressive behavior is necessary at this stage of the pattern to ignore the attraction below. More than optimal, gapping up Wednesday may be the minimal requirement for resuming the rally. Although an overnight dip to 2344.75 would qualify to neutralize the attraction below, not recovering it overnight would risk resuming the decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still testing the 1.0690-1.0725 pullback area Tuesday keeps alive the potential for recovering 1.0750 and extending back to last Monday’s 1.0930 gap up.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher overnight to 1263.70 after triggering the 1252.00 buy signal Monday settled in around 1258.00, likely to probe higher Wednesday.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday morning’s probe above 18.30 was retraced entirely to fill the gap back to Monday’s close, but then recovered enough to close above 18.30 and suggest a probe above 18.55 is underway.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s blip-up above Monday’s 152-00 high, which had already fulfilled the retest of last Monday’s gap up, was again reversed back down, and into negative territory at 151-17, just 5 ticks short of the new sell signal.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially extending Monday’s shallow dip overnight was reversed to rally Tuesday to fresh highs testing 51.15, maintaining the rally targeting 53.55.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday rejected Monday’s dip to the 3.13 sell signal, surging instead to fresh highs at 3.28. The top needed no such retest, so the strength does suggest new sponsorship has arrived.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 5, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open ADP report offers an opportunity to gauge market sentiment ahead of Friday’s payrolls announcement. Any discernible reaction to the pre-open report would likely by duplicated by the morning’s post-open reports. The afternoon’s FOMC Minutes will be watched for clues to how many rate hikes might be coming.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Mid-day Update… Absorbed, but not invalidated?
Morning dip retraced.
Did this morning’s dip leave a lasting impression? Yesterday afternoon’s buyers gained traction, so they’re capable of absorbing a reaction down. In fact, the morning ended unchanged from yesterday’s close(s).
So, this morning’s drop was retraced entirely to unchanged. Did buyers absorb it? And since the 2349.75 bias-down triggered, is it now absorbed?
Tough call, but probably not. Still overlapping the bias-down signal at 10:30 prevented invalidating it. And despite being higher, the bias environment lapsing at 11:30 was still overlapping the open’s 2354.50 high. Higher still at noon, and still overlapping.
Bias-down triggered cleanly. But although it hasn’t since extended, neither has it been rejected cleanly. The 2344.75 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below.” Another interim rally is possible, especially so long as 2352.75 holds as support. But back under 2349.75 could resume the morning’s decline.