S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh lows Sunday night thoroughly tested the remaining room below at 1.0690-1.0725 for a pullback, while still being likely to resolve up above 1.0750 and fill last Monday’s 1.0930 opening gap.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday morning’s probe above Friday’s recovery high also tried triggering the 1252.00 buy signal that essentially targets at least a probe above last week’s highs, if not also a fresh recovery high close.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrowly ranging price action Monday continued to avoid resuming the rally above 18.30 for a probe above 18.55, and also avoided rejecting the test of 18.30 for launching a new downleg.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Unfinished business above at last Monday’s 151-26 gap up was finally tested Monday morning, probed briefly to a fresh high at 152-10. The 150-24 sell signal is no longer unlikely to break lower if tested. Just closing under 151-12 would suggest a top is completing.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday morning’s pullback was relatively shallow, and barely threatened to reject the confirmed bottom already targeting 53.55 above.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s gap up to 3.24 was reversed down sharply into Monday’s open, down to the 3.13 sell signal whose break would be likely to launch a new downleg.
Mid-day Update… Now, the wait.
Bounce stops short of reversal signal.
There is no further unfinished business below. This morning’s 2350.50 bias-down target was met, which was triggered under 2357.75. Tuesday morning’s no-bias trending above 2342.25 had required a retest. It was probed during the noon hour down to 2340.00.
Now a bounce has held this afternoon’s 2349.75 bias-up signal. No offsetting test of its bias-down signal is required. Entering the noon hour above 2350.50 would have been optimal, anyway.
Backing-and-filling during this afternoon’s bias environment could still resolve up into the close. Closing back under 2342.25 would instead put into play 2321.00 and probably also 2311.00 below.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 4, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s several econ reports culminate in the highest-profile among them, but none has a reliable track record for influencing price action.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Daniel Tarullo Speaks
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2353.25 | 2349.75 |
| …would target | 2359.25 | 2356.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2345.50 | 2342.25 |
| …would target | 2339.75 | 2336.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And down. And done?
Uptrending support breaks. Hard.
Opening unchanged at 2359.25 had ranged 2358.00-2361.75 through the open, surrounded by econ reports. But that only inhibited a resolution. 
Fresh lows after the first half-hour also broke the uptrending pivotal support I described during the Tour.
This morning’s 2357.75 bias-down signal triggered cleanly on the way down to 2352.75. Bouncing only touched the bias-down signal, which doesn’t suffice for invalidating a cleanly triggered signal. Shorting there, with a SAR above 2359.00, was soon probing back under its 2355.00 inflection point.
And already, the 2350.50 bias-down target has been met. And also probed. A lot. The 2348.75 connector of the uptrending pivotal support is being probed. A lot. RSIs are oversold.
Having tested 2348.75, entering the noon hour back above 2350.50 would suggest the selling has ended. Not recovering 2348.75 would next target the “unfinished business below” at 2348.25 still outstanding from last week.
Already breaking lower to 2343.50 makes the 2342.25 unfinished business likelier. Which had better hold its test, because the 2321.00 attraction below it could be probed by 10 points.