S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sharply higher highs overnight probed well above the 1.0900 target to 1.0950 before settling back to attack 1.0900 as support. Closing back under 1.0895 would start to signal momentum reversing down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially rallying to fresh highs Monday morning at 1261.00 did react down to 1252.50, which was still sufficient to fulfill the minimum requirement for at least one more higher close outstanding.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s rally extended through the 17.90 target to test 18.15, and must now hold above 17.90 to maintain the rally’s momentum.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next higher objective at 152-00 was tested Sunday night. Monday morning’s reaction down tested the adjusted pullback limit at 151-12. Closing under the recovery’s gap up suggests the rally is waning, but there is room down to 150-24 before suggesting momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Proximity to the 48.50 buy signal and two days of narrow ranging didn’t prevent attacking last week’s lows under 47.10. Recovering up to resistance didn’t recover positive territory, which reflects “ineffectual pessimism” that keeps alive near-term potential to recover.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night to fresh highs at 3.12-3.13 didn’t extend and only overlapped last week’s “lower prior highs.” Closing under lower prior highs suggests a new rally leg is not starting.
Mid-day Update… The longest yard.
Stopping short of the bias-up target.
The first half-hour recovered from attacking 2317.00 support to testing 2327.00 resistance. It slowed from there. Not for a very long time, but at a time nonetheless 
that defined the difference between strong hands and weak. Waiting to probe higher until after the first hour identified the probe’s sponsorship as weak-handed.
Weak-handed, or not, the probe has extended both substantially and relentlessly. But not surprisingly. Its objectives extended from 2331.00-2335.50, all tested before noon.
Reacting down didn’t prevent higher highs, but they were delayed until the noon hour. Which also reflected weak-handed sponsorship. And which also did not prevent extending higher again.
Now this afternoon’s 2335.50 bias-up signal has triggered. And it’s being tested as support, after an interim bounce stopped more than 1 point short of its 2341.50 bias-up target. Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest.
Otherwise, back under 2332.75 would start to signal that overbought RSIs will be left outstanding. Resuming the decline today would target fresh lows, and potentially also 2311.00. Even while closing today above 2331.00 would marginalize sellers, it wouldn’t prevent a shallower dip tomorrow before recovering.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 28, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s calendar is busy, but not very high-profile, and with only one report that is reliable for influencing price action. The afternoon’s two Fed speakers may have more influence.
Dennis Kaplan Speaks
Mon 6:30 PM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
12:45 PM ET
*Dennis Kaplan Speaks
1:00 PM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2339.00 | 2335.50 |
| …would target | 2344.75 | 2341.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2332.25 | 2329.00 |
| …would target | 2326.75 | 2323.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A little too little.
Gap down holding, but not rejected.
Attacking 2317.00 to within 3 ticks overnight had bounced to test 2327.00. It was retraced into and out of the open to test 2318.00. Twice. The second test produced a bounce that recovered the overnight bounce.
That’s a wide range, and a lot of volatility within it, especially for being contained within the first half-hour. Which makes the second half-hour all the more glaring, for its 3-4 point ranging up to 2327.00.
Now the final hour is ending with a retest of 2328.00. It’s a little too little and a little too late to be a strong-handed recovery. Extending any higher would target 2331.00 up to 2335.50. Entering the noon hour any higher would start to suggest this downleg has ended.
Otherwise, an intraday retest of 2317.00 isn’t required but likely. And it’s probe down to 2311.00 isn’t yet likely, but becoming more so.