S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday morning’s extremely narrow ranging at Friday’s high gave way just a bit into the afternoon, still hovering dangerously close to the 1.0695 sell signal.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night firmed up to 1235.50 before dipping back into the range most of Monday. It was attack Monday afternoon by probing back above the 1232.50 gap up that had been tested already Thursday.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 17.50 resistance that had held its brief test Thursday was retested Monday. Its recovery would target 17.90.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Never rejecting Friday’s recovery to the 148-20 bounce target, which had held its test Thursday night, enabled its probe to fresh highs Monday. Unless rejected soon and aggressively, the bounce can next extend to 150-06.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s gap down touched the “lower prior high” of Tuesday’s range, which had formed while Tuesday’s lower-end was fulfilling the 47.25 target. “Unfinished business above” at Friday’s close was then nearly neutralized, too. No further weakness is required before launching a corrective bounce.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night didn’t prevent Monday morning from rallying back above 2.95. And also back above 3.00 to require triggering the 2.95 sell signal Tuesday to avoid fresh highs.
Mid-day Update… Looking for influence.
Morning’s influence lapsed, none other yet appearing.
Was the bullish WedEX influential? A gap down did define the morning’s low. And its reaction did probe back into positive territory. That’s hardly optimal.
Regardless, any WedEX influence lapsed when this morning’s bias environment was exited.
RSIs diverged negatively at this morning’s 2376.00 high, which had room to react down to 2372.00. It was tested and retested, while the noon hour fluctuated 5-6 ticks either way around 2373.00.
So, this morning’s post-open bounce hasn’t reversed momentum up, and there’s no requirement to extend the bounce any higher. The next move is in search of sponsorship — whether that is to resume the morning’s recovery, or to resume the overnight drop, or to stretch the rubber band by testing either post-extreme before snapping back.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Mar 21, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Fed speakers litter this week’s calendar. But Monday’s dual appearance and Tuesday’s noon hour appearance will be overshadowed as the week wears on.
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2380.75 | 2377.00 |
| …would target | 2386.25 | 2382.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2373.25 | 2369.75 |
| …would target | 2367.25 | 2363.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Suspenseful suspension.
Gap down holds, bullish WedEX intact.
There was nothing bearish about the open’s pattern. It was not redundant to repeat the overnight low’s retracement to 2370 50, where Wednesday’s FOMC 
reaction had originated. Its retest targeted 2369.50, which was touched. And 1-minute RSI all but diverged positively on its retest.
Reacting up from both tests wasn’t bearish, essentially proving the level is relevant.
Even delaying the bullish WedEX influence wasn’t bearish. But it’s at least optimally bullish, so long as the opening 15 minutes of volatility did contain the low. A late push higher touched the 2375 75 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period, and ultimately triggered it by a 2-tick 2-minute margin. Also not optimal. But also not bearish.
An offsetting test of the 2380.00 bias-up signal is now in-play.
The late push accomplished invoking a grace period. That gives the push’s sponsorship more credibility. Now, a fresh high above 2376.00 would be helpful, since RSIs diverged negatively there. Regardless, only fresh session lows could threaten to prevent 2380.00 from becoming “unfinished business above.”