S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Plunging 12 points to Thursday’s low was not produced by strong-handed sponsorship. It was in reaction to a headline. And it was likely exacerbated by anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.
Recovering the entire slide into the close was not produced by strong-handed sponsorship, either. Anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report kept price range bound, with plenty of room to bounce.
But new “unfinished business below” was created at the 2351.00 low’s oversold RSIs. And “unfinished business above” remains outstanding at 2374.50. “Lower prior highs” have been tested yet again, and this time recovered to close positive.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Spiking up in reaction to Thursday’s ECB events was retraced back under the 1.0585 bounce limit but still held 1.0570 whose break should resume the decline targeting 1.0470..
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows extended the decline to probe under its 1208.50-1209.00 objective Thursday down to 1201.00, next targeting 1198.00-1199.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The decline extended overnight and into Thursday morning to fulfill the 17.05 target. It wasn’t rejected, so probing it is likely.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s 148-04 bounce limit test was retraced overnight and fresh lows were probed Thursday morning on the way to an afternoon drop testing 146-20. January’s low is now being probed, next targeting 146-00 and potentially 144-00.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight extended Wednesday’s plunge to attack the 48.55 target to within a nickel. A corrective bounce is increasingly possible ahead of the 47.25 target.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already firming through Monday’s 2.95 high, Thursday’s EIA report triggered a slight knee-jerk reaction up. Its retracement was recovered to a fresh high at 2.98, but 2.95 was still being tested into the close.
Mid-day Update… Still stuck.
Ranging gets blind-sided.
Recovering into and out of the open hasn’t amounted to much. Stopping 1 tick of the morning’s 2366.50 bias-up signal prevented putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. But the no-bias environment and noon hour only ranged +/- 2 points around 2363.00.
And now a headline has triggered a 5-point plunge to probe the post-open low, 2 ticks short of the 2357.50 bias-down signal. This is during another no-bias environment, so the low’s retest could serve as this window’s low.
Retesting the low can also serve as a bottom, but will it. It would be the first post-open print under yesterday’s low. The open had isolated the overnight lows, which is not a buy signal, but good soil for one.
Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report may inhibit trending this afternoon. So, trending back up to this morning’s highs is likelier than breaking lower. However, exiting the bias environment and still defending against a break lower ahead of news would be difficult to recover.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 10, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: February’s Employment Situation report is the morning’s only scheduled release, so its reaction could continue being influential through the morning.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2369.50 | 2366.50 |
| …would target | 2375.00 | 2372.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2360.50 | 2357.50 |
| …would target | 2355.25 | 2352.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.