S&P
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post…
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s opening 3-point surge to 2282.00 was reversed by a 7-1./2 point plunge that attacked the 2373.75 overnight lows to within 2 ticks. So, its 2372.25 late bias-down target became “unfinished business below.” Trending back up to probe a couple of points above the morning’s high was interrupted once by a wide swing between 2276.00-2281.00 that suggests volatility is expanding. But a sell signal came too late to produce a break back under Thursday’s 2280.25 close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The bullish scenario that I described in Friday’s Market Wrap is trying to play out. Trump’s Saturday morning tweets may take some credit, undermining his legislative agenda, including tax reform that inspired much of the rally. North Korea firing four rockets stirred the pot. Either catalyst will suffice. Sunday night’s open plunged to 2 points under Thursday night’s 2373.75 low, and quickly bounced back up to it. Hours of ranging there narrowly greeted Europe’s opens, where a new dip touched 2268.75. Now its reaction up is testing 2276.00.
If, then…
A fresh low became likely after Friday’s failure to reverse its fresh trend lows back above the morning’s high. And while a shallow dip to 2372.25 could have resolved the pullback, the delay would likely be compensated by extending down to 2368.50. Which has been tested to within 1 tick. Isolating it to the overnight would likely reverse momentum up, potentially extending to new highs targeting 2405.50 and 2418.00. Otherwise, not already recovering at the open should extend down to test 2364.00, too.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2377.75 would be likely to avoid triggering the 2375.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2373.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
[NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] Sorry, the online dictation facility was not responding this morning.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2383.75 | 2383.00 |
| …would target | 2388.75 | 2388.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2375.50 | 2375.00 |
| …would target | 2369.25 | 2368.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday Factors helped to set a floor Friday morning. The open’s 3-point surge to 2282.00 was reversed by a 7-1./2 point plunge that attacked overnight lows to within 2 ticks. We know that recovering from a probe under the overnight low would form a more credible bottom. But that didn’t entice Friday’s fickle sponsorship to maintain control.
The morning’s 2372.25 late bias-down target became “unfinished business below.” Recovering to within 2 points of the open’s 2282.00 high suddenly found great volatility between 2276.00-2281.00. But the overnight and post-open decline’s never resumed. The balance of the session blipped-up to and slightly through 2281.00, where the session closed.
I describe in the Market Wrap video why the pattern suggests that even the most bullish resolution will likely be preceded by a fresh low. That fresh low may be isolated to the overnight. It could take longer if the 2372.25 bias-down target’s delay has made 2368.50 or 2364.00 likely, too. Of course, gapping up Monday above 2288.25 would suggest new sponsorship has arrived already.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Join us for this weekend’s Saturday Review at 9:30am ET in the chaRTroom. Reminder links will be sent early-morning.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday held its test of Thursday’s gap down, maintaining the decline’s 1.0470 outstanding target.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s break under the 1241.00 sell signal and 1238.00 confirmation probed lower overnight and extended Friday morning to test prior lows down to 1223.00. Back above 1233.00 is the minimum requirement to signal momentum reversing up.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s plunge barely bounced overnight before probing lower Friday morning to test 17.70 support. Avoiding a second consecutive lower close would avoid requiring at least a third eventual lower close, but the pattern does not appear capable otherwise of avoiding that.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having confirmed the trend change with Thursday’s second consecutive close under 151-11, Friday drifted to fresh lows under 150-00 into the weekend. Under 149-22 would confirm the drop targeting 148-02 is underway.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s break under the 53.58 sell signal came at a point in the pattern that could be very bearish if confirmed, but Friday’s bounce is avoiding a second consecutive lower close. The default is not necessarily bearish, and the pattern remains vulnerable to probing fresh lows Monday.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming slightly Friday to test 2.82 resistance still has room to test 2.86 while still being required to probe under the prior week’s overnight 2.64 lows.
Mid-day Update… Down isn’t done.
Noon hour bounce fizzles.
This morning’s 2378.50 bias-down triggered late, but it triggered. Its 2372.25 bias-down target was attacked to within 6 ticks, but it became “unfinished business below.”
Bouncing into and out of the noon hour got a boost from Yellen’s remarks. A spike down to 2376.00 blipped-back up immediately to touch 2381.00. But the blip-up has been retraced entirely.
It’s too late to trigger bias-down under 2375.00. Probing under it during the no-bias environment isn’t likely. But it’s possible, and its “no-bias trending” and required to recover, which would not be inappropriate since fresh lows are likely to recovery anyway.