S&P
Mid-day Update… Attraction above.
Morning’s objective still outstanding.
Holding this morning’s test of its 2356.75 bias-down signal put into play an offsetting test of the 2366.00 bias-up signal. The morning’s 2363.25 high was corrected down to 2358.00, and now the morning’s high is being attacked.
This afternoon’s 2362.00 bias-up signal didn’t hold or trigger. This is a noN-bias environment. The setup doesn’t encourage rallying, but neither does it prohibit it.
Hovering around 2362.00 until the noN-bias environment starts lapsing often behaves as if the bias was just signaled. The bias environment can’t dip too deeply to maintain that potential.
Extending higher would target a probe above yesterday’s highs. It would not require closing any higher. Yesterday’s two reactions down help to explain the hesitation in recovering already. But fresh highs remain likely so long as 2358.50 now holds as support.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Feb 23, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is busy, the week’s busiest. But only one econ report has a reliable track record of influencing price action. Any noticeable reaction to the pre-open reports or the Fed speaker is likely to be duplicated by the post-open reports.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
8:35 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2364.00 | 2362.00 |
| …would target | 2369.25 | 2367.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2357.75 | 2356.00 |
| …would target | 2352.50 | 2350.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Warning shot.
Pre-open dip holds support.
Attacking yesterday’s low down to 2355.25 a couple of hours before the open did not extend. Bouncing greeted the open essentially at 2357.50, which is yesterday’s afternoon bias environment low.
A “session-long decline” setup had formed. But would it trigger? Holding the prior low’s test would accomplish the opposite effect. Expending enough selling pressure to produce all off the setup’s bearish elements, but not exploiting it, would be a gift to buyers.
In fact, post-open action did not extend down under 2357.50. Fluctuating between 2356.00-2359.00 ultimately held the 2356.75 bias-down signal’s test, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2366.00 bias-up signal. Already, fresh post-open highs are printing 2361.50.
The session-long decline setup wasn’t optimal. Yesterday’s futures did slide sharply, hiding the gap down. So, the consequence of a session-long rally isn’t reliable. Nevertheless, we’ll monitor for that potential of probing fresh highs through all but one intraday timing window.
Regardless of its degree and duration, a recovery is likely so long as 2357.50 holds as support. The recovery must create some new higher attraction to maintain the rally, or else this morning’s weak open will have been only a warning shot across the bow.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
The bullish WedEX followed-through from Friday’s influence to the next cash session’s morning. Gapping up to 2353.00 extended higher to attack the 2365.00-2366.00 renewed bias-up target to within 1 tick. Reacting down 9 points was recovered entirely to actually touch 2365.00 just before the close, neutralizing all outstanding attractions above. Reacting down again almost 7 points into the futures close still held above the session’s intraday lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Fluctuating narrowly around the 2360.00 futures closes eventually rallied to greet Europe’s opens at the cash session’s 2362.50 close. A 2-point surge attacked 2364.00, and then began reversing down. And down. Attacking yesterday’s 2355.75 low had tried bouncing, but that is now resolving down to attack 2355.00.
If, then…
Having neutralized all remaining upside attractions yesterday, the rally’s future depends on creating more bullish influences. Opening today would attempt to do that, creating “unfinished business above” at the gap back to yesterday’s close. A shallow gap that’s still within the orbit of yesterday’s close could be attracted back up to it. A deep gap could launch a mutli-session correction before eventually recovering. Last night’s dip is threatening the latter. We can ignore yesterday’s last-minute plunge as being disassociated from otherwise rallying into the close. So, gapping down under the afternoon bias environment’s 2357.50 low could form a “session-long decline” that trends down through at least tomorrow morning. Avoiding that deep of an opening drop could still find stiff resistance up to 2366.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2355.00 would be likely to trigger the 2356.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2359.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.