S&P
Mid-day Update… Consolidating its gains.
Rally pauses for another no-bias.
This morning’s bias environment neutralized both the offsetting test of this morning’s 2342.00 bias-down signal 
and yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2342.25. That was done during a plunge from 2347.75 that eventually touched 2336.75.
But no-bias had already triggered. Probing under this morning’s 2342.00 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment is “no-bias trending.” It requires bouncing back up to at least 2342.00, if not also to the 2344.00 10:15 print. Both were tested during the noon hour.
The bounce also attacked this afternoon’s 2345.50 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. No-bias has triggered again. The 2339.75 bias-down signal was attacked into 1:30, but held. Probing under it could still test fresh session lows, once again as “no-bias trending” that would require recovery.
Without there being an objective in-play, and without first testing an extreme, price action through the close may otherwise be less predictable.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 17, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s LEI is the morning’s only influential and high-profile report. No pre-open reports precede it that might have indicates the post-open reports’ reaction. But it is monthly expiration, and ahead of a three-day holiday weekend, so price action might be very interesting — or else it will be a very boring afternoon.
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2347.25 | 2345.50 |
| …would target | 2353.00 | 2351.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2341.25 | 2339.50 |
| …would target | 2335.25 | 2333.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Stickiness.
Flat-to-lower open trades lower-to-flat.
The overnight slide had extended down to 2344.50 before bouncing into the 2348.00 open. And through it, up to 2349.75. That tested the bias-up signal by 3 ticks, which held through 10:15 to trigger no-bias.
An offsetting test of the 2342.00 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks or less. It won’t become “unfinished business below” if left outstanding. Yesterday afternoon’s 2342.25 bias-up signal was also retraced to within 3 ticks, neutralizing its required retest.
Selling done? Possibly, but that wouldn’t default back to rally mode. This IS a no-bias environment. In fact, bouncing up to 2347.75 is reacting down sharply back to new session lows.
Meanwhile, nothing has changed about the timing, which enables a deeper retracement before even consolidating. But now the 2342.25 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end, at least to not let a break stray too deep.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s weak open duplicated Tuesday’s opening weakness. No-bias was triggered without touching either bias signal, but a late break above the 2336.50 bias-up signal extended anyway to 2343.00. Satisfying its required retracement to within 2 ticks at 2337.00 was deep enough to resume the rally. And the afternoon’s no-bias signal was again no impediment to breaking the 2342.25 bias-up signal to 2349.75. The rally gained traction for its effort, despite the “unfinished business below” back down at 2342.25 and possibly 2341.00. Wednesday’s post-close surge up to 2351.50 duplicated Tuesday’s last-minute short-squeeze. WedEX triggered actively bullish.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex immediately dipped back down through Wednesday’s 2349.75 high, and gradually extended to within 1 tick of the 2346.75 cash session close. Hours of ranging sideways back up to 2349.75 finally probed lower to test Wednesday’s last-minute 2346.25 low.
If, then…
WedEX triggered actively bullish, easily. And the session ended ultimately in a short-squeeze. Yet, it was the first session in a week to leave “unfinished business below.” The contradiction is mixed signals only if one is left outstanding. The no-bias trending origin at 2341.00-2342.25 can be neutralized easily Thursday morning, and a consolidation can preserve energy until needed to fulfill the bullish WedEX Friday afternoon. Avoiding the dip and pause to resume rallying immediately could lead to an inverted WedEX that collapses into the weekend. For now, it’s Occam vs. Pavlov, i.e. Dip and pause is the likelier path higher, until disproved by rallying immediately this morning.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2351.00 would be likely to trigger the 2349.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2346.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.