S&P
Mid-day Update… They’re not making it any easier.
Noon hour slide is retesting overnight low.
Holding a test of the 2286.25 bias-down signal through the 10:15 bias timing window put into play an offsetting test of the 2295.25 bias-up signal. Piercing fresh post-open highs after 10:15 by only 3 ticks was still sufficient to protect the setup from being invalidated.
And it wasn’t. But neither has it extended any higher to its objective. In fact, just the opposite. Sliding since the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, through the noon hour, just pierced the 2284.00 overnight low by 2 ticks. Invoking the bias signal’s grace period didn’t help it to avoid triggering noN-bias, still overlapping 2285.25 at both 1:20 and 1:30.
Back above 2286.50 would start to signal another rally attempt underway. Otherwise, drifting further down to 2281.00 or lower is likely.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s JOLTS report is both high-profile, and often influential to price action.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2297.50 | 2292.75 |
| …would target | 2303.00 | 2298.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2289.75 | 2285.25 |
| …would target | 2287.50 | 2279.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Pre-open dip keeps the lid on it.
Gap down holds test of bias-down signal.
A late probe of fresh overnight lows has been retraced into and out of the open. Its recovery was potentially bearish, 
filling the gap back to Friday’s futures close so that its attraction is now neutralized. Recovering the late dip is also potentially bullish, having put into play fresh highs.
The 10-point drop down to 2284.00 had bounced enough for the open to touch 2286.25 and then extend higher. Being this morning’s bias-down signal, holding its test through 10:15 has put into play an offsetting test of the 2295.25 bias-up signal.
Touching 2286.25 post-open was likely in a bullish scenario, and recovering 2288.00 led the scenario to include testing 2290.75. The objective was met, and retested, but not yet actually exceeded.
Reacting down to 2287.25 should be only a temporary corrective dip before resolving up. Invalidating the bias signal became much more difficult when price probed a fresh post-open high after 10:15.
Back above 2290.00 would start to signal the recovery was resuming. But not yet recovering when the bias environment begins lapsing could require a deeper dip to 2281.00 before bottoming.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday ended four consecutive sessions of closing at (or once within several ticks of) 2275.00. It wouldn’t have happened without the session gapping above those four sessions, and with the open maintaining the gap. The 2287.00 open was retraced 4 points, and then recovered to attack 2294.00 before the morning bias environment began lapsing. The prior Thursday-Friday “higher prior lows” were recovered, but their upper-end still held as resistance. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways, supported by 2290.00. .
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open slid as America, the world, and our galaxy all were stunned by the Atlanta Falcons early and wide lead over the defending champions New England Patriots. Almost simultaneously timed to the come-from-behind victory, the slide stopped at 2287.50. And it was recovered entirely, eventually piercing Friday’s highs up to 2294.25. Price has since slid back down to test 2290.00.
If, then…
There’s still no evidence that stretching the rubber band tighter last week down to 2275.00 will be any more fruitful in resuming the rally. One piece of evidence against it would be to gap down this morning, which would target 2275.00, and lower. But a gap down isn’t currently threatened. Rather, being back in the orbit of last week’s 2299.50 “new Globex trend extreme” makes its retest likely sooner rather than later..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2294.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2295.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2290.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2286.25 bias-down signal.