S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday afternoon’s paralysis ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report was masked by the wide range containing it. My last comments before noon identified a sell signal under 2275.75 targeting 2271.00. It was met at noon, and the balance of the afternoon essentially developed between them.
Actually, the afternoon high tested 2277.00. The last bounce retested it and finally closed above 2275.00. By 1 point. Closing there, or not, that’s still a big attraction for the fourth consecutive session.
Now there’s another attraction. Overbought RSIs at the morning’s 2279.75 high require a retest. That can be neutralized by retesting it overnight. And it’s not necessarily resistance — gapping up (and maintaining it) continues to be the bullish setup. Again.
One other bullish setup would be to recover from probing fresh low, i.e. isolating them to the overnight. There’s only a small chance that this pattern absorbs another fresh low, but it would point higher into the weekend. Otherwise, a downleg targeting 2248.50‘s retest should make itself obvious before the open.
There was no Market Wrap recording Thursday.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday must close higher to make fresh highs likely Friday. There is otherwise a vulnerability to reversing back down into the weekend.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gaping up to fresh highs at 1227.50 was reversed back down to test the 1218.00 buy signal Thursday as support. Regardless of its resolution, the gap up will want to be revisited.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday through 17.63 was retraced to almost fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s close. Regardless of the pattern’s resolution, the gap up will want to be revisited.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up to test the 151-11 maximum bounce limit Thursday was retraced to almost fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s 150-14 close. The decline has no excuse not to resume into the weekend, unless it isn’t going to resume, at all.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s close above 53.50 was extended Thursday morning to test 54.25 resistance. Its reaction down is trying to hold 53.50, whose break through the close would essentially reverse momentum back down.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Thursday to Tuesday’s 3.12 close was reversed back up in reaction to the EIA report. Its complete retracement is not bearish, but neither does it yet qualify for completing a bottom.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 3, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This is an unusal Employment Situation report on Friday. It’s rare to be accompanied by any other reports, even on the same day. At least they’re not typically high-profile and influential. The session also has a Fed speaker to dscuss the prior day’s influences.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:15 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2281.75 | 2278.00 |
| …would target | 2287.25 | 2283.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2274.75 | 2271.00 |
| …would target | 2269.75 | 2266.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Mid-day Update… Range bound? Quite a range.
Morning’s rally may have defined the range’s upper-end.
REMINDER: I AM UNAVAILABLE SINCE NOON TODAY, FOR THE BALANCE OF THE SESSION. THERE WILL BE NO MARKET WRAP.
Not bad for a half-day’s work. Or, half-morning, actually. Testing the 2278.75 bias-up signal was the predictable outcomeof this morning’s setup. That was fulfilled, by a surge through 2275.00 to 2279.75. Its reaction down to 2275.00 is trying to reverse momentum back down.
Regardless, overbought RSIs at 2279.75 require its eventual retest. That might enable extending the rally this afternoon, but the difficulty with any trending is the usual anxiousness ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report.
Reversing back down to 2271.00 can’t be dismissed. Neither can extending that back toward the overnight range’s lower-end around 2266.00. Fresh highs above 2281.00 would have potential to last Thursday and Friday’s 2287.00-2289.00 higher prior lows.