S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 30, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Housing sector report follows last week’s five reports, so any reaction Monday will be a function of the prior week’s action. No other reports Monday have a track record for influencing price action.
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2297.75 | 2293.25 |
| …would target | 2303.25 | 2298.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2291.00 | 2286.50 |
| …would target | 2285.50 | 2281.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… noN decision actually is no decision.
If Confucius were a trader.
Confucius said, “no decision IS a decision.” 
This morning’s open said, “noN-bias.” And that really IS not a bias.
At least no-bias would have put into play an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. Bias-down would have put into play the bias-down target. But noN-bias was triggered by overlapping 2289.75 at 10:15 and again at 10:30. This morning’s window has no requirements of it.
Fortunately, we do have a bigger picture roadmap. Regardless of being deep or steep, only a brief dip this morning would be appropriate for resuming the rally today. Bias-down would have fit if resolved quickly. So, resuming the rally today may wait until the bias environment begins lapsing, but need not.
By the same token, exiting the bias environment in decline to fresh lows would not be bullish. Probing a fresh low before then could recover. Otherwise, it would be yet another reflection of weakness, along with not confirming Wednesday’s breakout, and Thursday’s flat, narrow ranging.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s open and close were essentially flat with each other, and essentially flat with Wednesday’s 2294.00 close. This seemed to ignore the prior two sessions’ rally, as much as the overnight’s rally — although attraction to the overnight “new Globex trend extreme” may have inhibited trending down. Anyway, the open’s dip back down to the 2291.75 overnight low was the opportunity to reverse down, but it held. Probing under it later was less about continued selling, and more about searching for stronger buyers.
Overnight action’s new info…
No hint of trending appeared until rallying to greet Europe’s opens back at Thursday morning’s 2296.75 high. And like Thursday morning, the overnight rally attempt was reversed back down entirely to 2291.25. Bouncing back to yesterday’s 2294.00 close has yet to resolve either way.
If, then…
Yesterdays narrowly ranging session was more predictive than its size. Predictive, if not very productive. Its backing-and-filling followed a second consecutive surge to new highs. That was Tuesday and Wednesday, with Wednesday being an actual breakout closing above prior highs. So, Thursday missed the opportunity to confirm Wednesday’s breakout. It did leave outstanding a higher objective that was put into play overnight at the new Globex trend extreme. But repeating Thursday’s pause throughout Friday would undermine this leg’s 2327.00 objective, since it requires being met by an aggressive rally. After Thursday missed the opportunity to confirm a breakout, Friday not exploiting the proximity to a new high close would be doubly concerning. Any further pullback today can be deep and probably steep, but it must be brief to allow time for recovering and reversing up. Similarly, reacting down intraday from retesting Wednesday night’s Globex trend extreme would not only undermine the rally’s momentum, but possibly reverse momentum down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2298.75 would be likely to trigger the bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2292.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2301.25 | 2296.75 |
| …would target | 2305.50 | 2301.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2294.25 | 2289.75 |
| …would target | 2288.50 | 2284.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.