S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A third consecutive session Wednesday fluctuating narrowly around last week’s high is more likely forming a Double Top, and less likely basing to launch a new upleg. So, any initial weakness would be likely to trend down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s dip to the 1209.00 pullback limit extended down overnight to gap down Wednesday and test the 1195.00 sell signal. No unfinished business above would be left outstanding.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday night’s dip attacked the 16.75 sell signal despite there likely being one more higher close outstanding in the pattern. Otherwise, having filled the gap Tuesday back up to last Wednesday’s close, no other unfinished business above would remain outstanding.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having retraced Monday’s corrective bounce up to 152-22 by closing Tuesday back under 151-11, Wednesday exploited the opportunity to resume the sealed top’s decline. The 149-08 low retraced all of the month’s gain, and attacked the first day’s gap down that had been recovered abruptly..
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The overnight dip in reaction to Tuesday’s post-close API report was recovered to retest 53.25 resistance, but reversed down again after EIA. Now the consolidation is free to resolve in either direction, likely down to 49.05 and 47.75.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. Tuesday’s high neutralized the attraction to a gap above, while a gap at prior lows down to 3.12 remains outstanding.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jan 26, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A fourth Housing sector report is released Thursday. Already, several other econ reports will have been released pre-open, and any price reaction to them will likely be duplicated post-open — especially with LEI. The two Fed sectors have no track record for influencing price action.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2296.25 | 2291.50 |
| …would target | 2302.00 | 2297.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2288.75 | 2284.00 |
| …would target | 2282.50 | 2277.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Traction rewarded.
Gap up extends higher post-open.
Gapping up 6 points above yesterday’s high to 2286.50 wasn’t necessary to extend the trend this morning. Yesterday afternoon’s rally had gained traction already, all but requiring it. So, a quick dip down to 2284.25 recovered to probe a fresh high, and a consolidation resolved by trending up to 2290.25.
None of which ever touched this morning’s 2283.25 bias-up target. Exceeding it through 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 2288.00. It was being tested at 10:15, but room for noise above it to 2292.25 is being probed now.
Closing today above its opening print would essentially trigger a breakout. Still subject to confirmation, it would probably extend higher to 2320.00. But until the close, unless the afternoon’s bias-up signal is triggered from positive territory, no higher objective is in-play.
Closing under the opening print wouldn’t by itself form a top. But it would start one. Today’s gap up would still require being tested sometime after dipping back under 2280.25 or deeper.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording…
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s strength was steady, but also restrained. The 2266.00 bias-up signal’s attack didn’t trigger it, and its probe didn’t extend until the bias environment began lapsing. Then a rally emerged that traversed the 3-week old range to probe its high up to 2280.50 into the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Despite reacting down 6 points into the close, the rally gained traction. And despite reacting down into the close, unfinished business above was neutralized. No new higher objectives were created.
Overnight action’s new info…
A narrowing range had finally broken higher to greet Europe’s opens probing 2278.00, on the way up to new highs at 2282.25. Consolidating since then has been supported by yesterday’s 2280.25 high. Each reaction down is overlapping yesterday’s high without forming any interim complexity above. So, there is not yet any “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require being retested intraday.
If, then…
Having gained traction for yesterday afternoon’s efforts, the rally is likely to trend higher this morning. Trending higher this morning is no likelier to be maintained, or to avoid reversing down intraday. But not yet reversing down before the afternoon bias environment would make reversing down much less likely. Meanwhile, having probed higher overnight, trending higher this morning can be avoided by opening back under the ~2275.00 overnight low. The drop could extend down another 7 or 10 points without even threatening to reverse the trend down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2281.00 would be likely to trigger the 2278.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2275.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.